New Delhi: A scientist from a government committee on corona epidemic modeling has issued a new statement. In his statement, he said, "If covid-19 precautions are not followed in appropriate behavior, the third wave of coronavirus may peak between October-November, but half of the daily cases recorded during the second wave may be seen.'' If a new form of virus arises, the third wave can spread rapidly," says Manindra Agarwal, who is actually working on a mathematical estimate of the 'Sutra Model' or covid-19.
The Department of Science and Technology had constituted a committee last year to predict an increase in cases of coronavirus infection using mathematical models. Apart from Agrawal, a scientist from IIT Kanpur, the committee also consists of IIT Hyderabad scientist M Vidyasagar and Integrated Defence Staff Deputy Chief (Medical) Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar. The Committee had also faced criticism for not estimating the exact nature of the second wave of covid.
Meanwhile, Manindra Agarwal says that the loss of immunity, the impact of vaccination, and the possibility of a more dangerous nature while predicting the third wave have been cited as factors, which was not done during the modeling of the second wave. He also said that the detailed report will be published soon. He further added, ''We have created three scenarios. One is 'optimistic.' In this, we believe that life becomes normal by August, and there will be no new form of the virus. The second is 'intermediate.' In this, we believe that vaccination is 20 percent less effective, apart from optimistic scenario perceptions. The third one is 'pessimistic.' One of its assumptions is different from intermediate: in August a new, 25 percent more infectious mutated format spreads (it's not Delta Plus, which is no more contagious than Delta).''
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