New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about India's growing contribution to global growth, projecting that it will reach 18% by 2028, up from its current share of 16%. This positive outlook was expressed by Krishna Srinivasan, the director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF.
The latest IMF data suggests that India's accelerating economic growth, in contrast to China's gradual slowdown, may lead the South Asian nation to play a more significant role in global growth compared to its larger neighbor.
However, it's important to note that China remains a global economic giant in terms of the size of its economy. According to IMF estimates, China's nominal gross domestic product is expected to reach $23.61 trillion by 2028, while India's will reach $5.94 trillion.
Srinivasan added that both India and China are poised to jointly contribute approximately half of global growth in 2023 and 2024.
A recent report by HSBC economists Frederic Neumann and Justin Feng emphasized that India, while making progress, still has a considerable gap to close in order to match China's global economic influence. Their assessment considered the relative sizes of both economies and their contributions to global investment and consumption.
Furthermore, the IMF anticipates that India's economy will experience a growth rate of 6.3% for the current year and the following year. While the Asia Pacific region is predicted to maintain its status as the "most dynamic region" in the current year, with a growth rate of 4.6%, the IMF foresees a slight slowdown to 4.2% in 2024, and a further decline to 3.9% in the medium term. This projected medium-term growth rate is noteworthy, as it is expected to be the lowest in the last two decades, except for the exceptional circumstances of 2020.
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