According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is poised to become the primary driver of global oil demand growth from 2023 to 2030, edging ahead of China, the current top importer. The IEA disclosed this information on Wednesday, emphasizing India's pivotal role in shaping future oil consumption trends.
As per the report unveiled during the India Energy Week in Goa, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer is expected to witness a substantial increase in oil demand, reaching nearly 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). This surge accounts for over a third of the projected global gain of 3.2 million bpd during the specified period.
The IEA projects India's oil demand to escalate to 6.6 million bpd by 2030, up from 5.5 million bpd in 2023. The report highlighted India's pivotal position in driving global oil demand growth while noting a slowdown and eventual reversal of growth in developed economies and China.
To cater to this escalating demand, India is anticipated to augment its refining capacity by 1 million bpd over the next seven years. Consequently, crude imports are projected to soar to 5.8 million bpd by 2030.
Diesel is anticipated to spearhead India's oil demand growth, fueled by extensive industrial expansion, contributing nearly half of the nation's demand surge and over a sixth of global oil demand growth until 2030, as per the IEA.
Although jet fuel consumption is forecasted to grow annually by 5.9% on average, it will start from a relatively low base compared to other nations.
Moreover, the electrification of India's vehicle fleet is expected to moderate the growth in gasoline demand, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7%, according to the IEA. Additionally, the adoption of electric vehicles and advancements in energy efficiency measures could help India curtail an estimated 480,000 bpd of additional oil demand by 2030.
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