Beirut: In recent weeks, suspected Israeli airstrikes in Syria have killed two Iranian military advisers, temporarily shut down the country's two largest airports, and raised fears of regional escalation.
While Israel has been fighting a shadow war with Iran in Syria for years, it has recently escalated, with Syrian officials attributing nearly daily airstrikes to Israel.
The escalation of attacks follows what appears to be a rare infiltration of an armed man from Lebanon into Israel, as well as Iran's recent reconciliation with regional rival Saudi Arabia. It also comes amid a major domestic crisis in Israel as a result of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government's plan to overhaul the judiciary.
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Israel, which has vowed to end Iranian entrenchment in neighbouring Syria, has carried out hundreds of strikes on government-controlled targets in recent years — but rarely acknowledges them. Syrian officials have blamed Israel for ten strikes on Syrian territory since the beginning of 2023, including four airstrikes in five days as of Tuesday.
The United States, Israel's closest ally, has recently clashed with Iranian forces in Syria. Following a suspected Iran-linked drone attack in northeast Syria that killed a US contractor and injured six other Americans in late March, US forces retaliated with airstrikes on sites in Syria used by groups affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. According to an official with an Iranian-backed group in Iraq, the US strikes killed seven Iranians.
The conflict between the United States and Iran did not escalate, but some fear that the back-and-forth between Israel and Iran will.
Since the beginning of Syria's 12-year conflict, Iran has sent hundreds of military advisers as well as thousands of Iran-backed fighters from countries such as Iraq and Lebanon, who have helped tip the balance of power in favour of President Bashar Assad. Iran-backed fighters are stationed throughout Syria.
Iran has long been regarded as Israel's most dangerous adversary, citing Iranian calls for Israel's destruction, support for anti-Israel militant groups such as Hezbollah, and its nuclear programme.
Israel and Western countries claim Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons, which Iran denies. Iran has blamed Israel for attacks on its territory, including the assassination of some of its nuclear scientists and the destruction of nuclear facilities.
The airstrikes in Syria reflect Israel's concerns about fighters stationed near its northern border, as well as its fears that Iran is attempting to transfer sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah, such as guided missiles.
Since their 34-day war in 2006, Israel and Hezbollah have avoided a full-fledged war. Hezbollah, which is believed to have over 130,000 rockets and missiles, is viewed as a major threat by Israel.
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According to Lebanese military expert and former army general Hisham Jaber, Iran has approximately 1,800 military advisers in Syria, the majority of whom are deployed alongside Syrian troops.
The increase in strikes on Syria began with a Jan. 2 attack that temporarily shut down Damascus airport, just days after Israel's most right-wing government in its 74-year history took power.
Despite mass protests in Israel, including open disagreement between Netanyahu and his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, over the government's controversial plans for a judicial overhaul, the strikes continued. At one point, Netanyahu fired Gallant for criticising the plan, but then reversed course and put the overhaul on hold until parliament reconvenes in a month.
In recent days, the two men have made a number of public appearances, alluding to military activity in Syria without explicitly confirming it.
"We will not be harmed by the Iranians or Hezbollah." We have never allowed it in the past, and we will not allow it now or in the future," Gallant said this week. "If necessary, we will drive them out of Syria and back home." and that is Iran.”
Israeli attacks in Syria in recent weeks have allegedly targeted infrastructure as well as individuals with ties to Iran.
They attacked the airports in Damascus and Aleppo, ostensibly to stop the flow of arms into Syria but also to obstruct aid shipments following the deadly earthquake that struck Syria and Turkey on February 6.
At least five people were killed and 15 were injured on February 19 in the first known Israeli airstrikes following the earthquake, which were directed at residential areas in Syria's capital, Damascus. According to opposition activists, the strikes targeted militias supported by Iran.
The Israeli army reported killing an armed man in mid-March who was believed to have come into the country from Lebanon and been planning to blow up a car. Israelis were alarmed by the incident, which left one Israeli injured. Authorities believe the man infiltrated from Lebanon and may have been sent directly by Iran or Hezbollah.
A commander with the Palestinian militant organisation Islamic Jihad was assassinated by Israeli agents, according to the group, a few days after the alleged infiltration, outside his apartment complex near Damascus.
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Two Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisers were killed by an Israeli strike on a Damascus suburb on Friday. A drone that entered Israel from Syria was shot down a few hours later, and Israel's air force claimed Iran was responsible for its launch.
Israel has stepped up its action in recent weeks, according to Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, possibly in response to the recent allegations of infiltration from Lebanon.
Guzansky pointed out that Iran rarely expresses its regret for the loss of officers and advisors as soon as it did following the attack on Friday. The quick public acknowledgment, according to him, could mean that Iran "will avenge or respond to the Israeli attacks," perhaps focusing on Israelis abroad.
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An official with an organisation in the area that receives support from Iran warned that Tehran and its allies will retaliate if Israel continues the strikes. He spoke under the condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to speak with the media about the subject.
The Revolutionary Guard was quoted as saying that the murder of two Iranian advisors "will definitely not pass without retaliation" by Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency.