Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, has been unaccounted for since Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Beirut last week. Two senior Iranian security officials reported that Qaani has not been heard from since the attacks aimed at Hezbollah's stronghold.
Qaani had traveled to Lebanon following the death of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in late September. At the time of the strikes, Qaani was reportedly in Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, where Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah's presumed successor, was also targeted and has since been unreachable.
Various media reports, including those from Turkish and Israeli sources, suggest that Qaani may have been killed in the airstrikes. However, there has been no official confirmation from Iran or Hezbollah regarding his status.
While Iranian media has not commented on Qaani's fate, speculation has intensified. Reports from Israeli outlets, such as N12 and Channel 12, indicated that he might have been injured or killed. Although Lebanese authorities have purportedly confirmed his death, Israel has not verified this information. Some Saudi media even suggested that Qaani may have been executed by Iran for allegedly collaborating with Israel’s Mossad.
When asked about the possibility of Qaani’s death, an Israeli military spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, said, “When we have more specific results from that strike, we will share it. There’s a lot of questions about who was there and who was not.” He confirmed that Israeli forces conducted strikes on Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters in Beirut but did not provide details on specific casualties.
Who is Esmail Qaani?
Esmail Qaani, 67, has played a significant role in Iran’s military strategy since taking over the Quds Force after the death of his predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020. Soleimani, killed in a U.S. drone strike, was a highly influential figure across the Middle East, known for his strong connections with Iran's allies, including Hezbollah and various Shi’ite militias.
In contrast to Soleimani, Qaani has kept a lower profile and conducted meetings away from the public eye. His leadership has coincided with an increase in Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian proxies in the region.
Qaani began his military career during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and became the deputy commander of the Quds Force in 1997 under Soleimani. His responsibilities included overseeing operations beyond Iran's borders, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, Qaani does not speak Arabic, which has limited his ability to forge strong relationships with Arab militias.
Upon taking command, Qaani vowed to continue Soleimani’s mission of expelling U.S. forces from West Asia, stating, “We promise to continue martyr Soleimani’s path with the same force… and the only compensation for us would be to remove America from the region.”
Implications of Qaani’s Disappearance
If Qaani's death is confirmed, it would deal a significant blow to Iran’s influence in the Middle East. The Quds Force plays a critical role in managing Iran's relationships with its paramilitary allies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shi’ite militias in Iraq. Losing Qaani could hinder Iran's ability to maintain these alliances, particularly as tensions rise between Israel and Hezbollah.
Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon have intensified, with claims of more than 400 Hezbollah fighters killed since the ground operations began. Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated in a briefing that 30 Hezbollah commanders were among those casualties. He noted, "Since the beginning of the (ground) manoeuvre, forces have eliminated some 440 terrorists from the ground and from the air."
The recent airstrikes, which included 11 consecutive hits on Beirut targeting Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters, have raised uncertainties about Iran’s capacity to sustain its regional influence amidst increasing pressure from Israeli military actions.
Tensions Continue to Rise in Lebanon
The airstrikes are part of a broader military campaign aimed at diminishing Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon and countering Iran’s growing presence. As Hezbollah serves as a vital ally for Iran, the loss of key figures like Nasrallah and potentially Qaani could shift the balance of power in the region.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have already faced significant losses, including Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was reportedly killed alongside Nasrallah during the September 27 strikes. If Qaani's death is confirmed, it could escalate the conflict further, leading to a prolonged period of instability in the region.
The situation remains fluid, with Israeli forces continuing to assess the impact of their strikes on Hezbollah’s leadership. Currently, the fate of Esmail Qaani remains uncertain, leaving a critical gap in Iran’s regional military operations.
