The rising trend of consumer price inflation (CPI) witnessed in retail sector is expected to continue going ahead with March numbers likely to rise sharply by 50-60 base points on the back of unfavourable base and much lower sequential correction in vegetable prices, higher energy and transportation prices and select sequential increase in core goods inflation, a report tracking inflation data suggested on Saturday.
Retail inflation, calculated on the basis of CPI, hardened by around 100 bps to 5.03 percent in February as per the date released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on Friday.
According to an analysis report by Emkay Global Financial Services while the overall demand condition still remains patchy, the continued traction in activity, possibly improving producers' pricing power and rising input costs weigh on the underlying inflation that could see further firming up in March.
But on the brighter side, the report said that the headline inflation may average 4.5 percent in FY22E vs. 6.2 percent in FY21E, on the assumption that the food inflation normalizes." We see core inflation outdoing headline inflation through most part of FY22, averaging 5.2 percent, same as FY21. We, however, remain watchful of risks in the form of cost-push pressure in non-food and non-perishable goods, seasonal upside in food prices in summers and demand-led better pricing power," the report said.
The retail Inflation number in February has also widened the gap between rural (4.2 percent) and urban (5.96 percent) CPI inflation, partly reflecting intense volatility in food and fuel prices. Food inflation rose to 3.87 percent on an annualized basis from 1.9 percent prior, led by a slower sequential contraction in vegetables and pulses, and pick-up in oils and fats, while ex-pulses protein complex eased substantially amid avian flu fears.
On an annualized basis, vegetable inflation contracted 6.3 percent (-3.5 percent MoM) after -15.8 percent in Jan'21. High-frequency mandi prices suggest a further uptick in prices of edible oils and milk and slowing of sequential fall in perishables, while eggs, meat and fish prices may continue to ease through March 2021, the report said.