Mosocw: Russia's economy is expected to resume growth in the middle of the year, according to the Central Bank, which raised its latest forecast on Friday. The outlook is much brighter than many had predicted.
Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Russian Central Bank, told reporters that the higher-than-expected GDP forecast is due to an upward revision of previous estimates and "more significant budget expenditures than were taken into account in our October forecast."
The regulator noted that signs of Russia's economic recovery emerged at the end of last year, with GDP showing positive dynamics in the third and fourth quarters.
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"In terms of annual indicators, we believe GDP will enter positive territory in the middle of the year. "We give a symmetrical range of -1% to 1% for the overall GDP estimate for this year," Nabiullina said.
Last year, Russia became the target of broad Western economic sanctions aimed at putting pressure on Moscow both domestically and internationally by disrupting its trade relations and supply chains.
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The restrictions included measures to cut Russia's Central Bank off from the international financial system, preventing it from accessing billions of dollars in foreign assets. A number of Russia's largest banks have been barred from using the global financial messaging system SWIFT.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank's improved outlook is consistent with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecast, which predicts that Russian GDP will grow in 2023 after contracting by 2.2% last year. According to the IMF, Russia's economy will grow by 0.3% this year and 2.1% in 2024, outpacing Germany and the United Kingdom.
