Covid-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses in the next few years, its risk may shift from older adults to younger children as the SARS-CoV-2 virus, affecting mostly young children who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, according to a modelling study published on Thursday.

"Following infection by SARS-CoV-2, there has been a clear signature of increasingly severe outcomes and fatality with age," Ottar Bjornstad, of the Department of Biology at the Pennsylvania State University, said. Bjornstad explained that such shifts have been observed in other coronaviruses and influenza viruses as they have emerged and then become endemic. Historical records of respiratory diseases indicate that age-incidence patterns during virgin epidemics can be very different from endemic circulation.

Bjornstad further explained, “our modeling results suggest that the risk of infection will likely shift to younger children as the adult community becomes immune either through vaccination or exposure to the virus.” The study, published in the journal Science Advances, noted that such shifts have been observed in other coronaviruses and influenza viruses as they have emerged and then become endemic.

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