United States currency experts say Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and Switzerland among other countries are at the risk of being found in violation of the three US criteria for currency manipulation in the Treasury Department's long-delayed report on the foreign exchange practices of major trading partners. The experts expect the reports within few days. 

Before President Donald Trump leaves office, the  US Treasury is to label several countries currency manipulators, as the coronavirus pandemic skews trade flows and widens US deficits with trading partners. For this, the pointed country must at least have a $20 billion-plus bilateral trade surplus with the United States, foreign currency intervention exceeding 2% of GDP and a global current account surplus exceeding 2% of GDP. A former US Treasury economist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Brad Setser, has replicated data used by Treasury to analyse these criteria, constructing a quarterly tracker that shows Vietnam, Switzerland and Thailand exceeded the department's thresholds during the first and second quarters of 2020. 

The Swiss National Bank has spent 90 billion francs ($101 billion) to meet the franc's rise in the first half of 2020, putting it squarely in the Treasury's focus. There is no subsequent automated punishment with a currency manipulator label, though US law requires Washington to demand negotiations with designated countries. 

Sanmoy Chakrabarti replaced Jimmy Tata, HDFC Chief Risk Officer

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