Beirut: Kurdish forces and outside parties are attempting to determine how serious Ankara's threats of a ground invasion are in the wake of weeks of deadly Turkish airstrikes in northern Syria.

Following a deadly bombing in Istanbul on November 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly warned of a new land incursion to drive Kurdish groups away from the Turkish-Syrian border. The attack was attributed by Turkish authorities to the PKK, a banned organisation, and to the YPG, a group based in Syria. Both have refuted being involved.

On November 20, Ankara launched a wave of airstrikes that resulted in the deaths of dozens of people, including civilians, Kurdish fighters, and Syrian government soldiers. By disrupting power, fuel, and aid, Human Rights Watch has warned that the strikes are escalating a humanitarian crisis.

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In the most recent development, Sergei Vershinin, the deputy foreign minister of Russia, travelled to Turkey this week to hold talks about the Syrian situation.

Here is a breakdown of what the various international actors and organisations involved in the Syrian conflict stand to gain or lose:

Turkey's Desire

Turkey has launched three significant military incursions since 2016, seizing control of vast swaths of territory because it perceives the Kurdish forces along its border with Syria as a threat.

Erdogan has started constructing housing there in an effort to relocate many of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The plan could weaken historically Kurdish-majority areas by resettling non-Kurdish Syrian refugees there, as well as address the rising anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey and increase Erdogan's popularity ahead of the elections next year.

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Erdogan has also bragged about his plans to build a 30-kilometer (19-mile) security corridor through territory currently held by the Kurds. Turkish invasion plans were put on hold earlier this year due to opposition from the US and Russia.

Kurdish's Answers 

Kurdish organisations are putting pressure on the United States and Russia, both of which have military bases in northern Syria, to stop Turkey from enacting its threats once more.

The Kurds are concerned that the West will remain silent this time in order to placate Ankara in exchange for Sweden and Finland's approval to join NATO.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria's deputy co-chair, Badran Jia Kurd, claimed that Turkey would be encouraged to conduct a ground operation by the international community's silence regarding its brutality.

Kurdish organisations warn that a Turkish escalation would endanger efforts to put an end to the extremist group after they fought alongside an American-led coalition against it and are now responsible for guarding thousands of captured IS fighters and their families.

As a result of the airstrikes, U.S. and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces officials claimed in recent weeks that they had stopped or reduced their joint patrols against IS. However, patrols have since been resumed.

Syrian Role 

Any future ground offensive would probably be supported by the tens of thousands of fighters in the so-called Syrian National Army, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups backed by Turkey. The SNA has been charged with atrocities against Kurds in previous incursions, including the 2018 assault on the town of Afrin, and with displacing tens of thousands from their homes.

The Associated Press called and texted a number of SNA officials, but they did not reply. One of the officials who responded claimed that they had received orders from Turkish authorities not to discuss strategies for a fresh incursion.

The Syrian government has opposed prior Turkish incursions, but it also views the SDF as a secessionist force and a Trojan horse for the United States, which has imposed crippling sanctions on Bashar Assad's regime.

After 11 years of tension brought on by Turkey's support of rebel fighters in Syria's civil war, Damascus and Ankara have recently taken steps to normalise their relations. Regarding the recent Turkish strikes that resulted in the deaths of Syrian soldiers, Damascus has remained largely silent.

The United States continues to have a minimal military presence in northern Syria, where Turkey is enraged by the SDF's staunch support.

However, the U.S. initially made few public comments regarding the Turkish airstrikes, only speaking out strongly after they came perilously close to U.S. troops and forced the temporary suspension of anti-IS patrols. Last week, Lloyd Austin, the secretary of defence for the United States, declared his "strong opposition" to a fresh offensive.

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A senior U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity only said that there had been no changes to U.S. policy in the region when asked if there were any assurances for Kurds concerned that the U.S. might abandon them in order to persuade Turkey to agree to a NATO deal.

The Syrian government's closest ally is Russia. Its involvement in the conflict in Syria aided in Assad's victory.

Despite supporting opposing sides in the conflict, Turkey and Russia have worked closely together in northern Syria. Russia has pushed for a reconciliation between Damascus and Ankara in recent months.

Concerned about Turkey's recent military operations in northern Syria, Moscow has made an effort to mediate a settlement. Lt. Gen. Alexander Chaiko, the commander of Russian forces in Syria, reportedly recently suggested to SDF commander Mazloum Abdi that Syrian government forces should deploy in a security strip along the Turkish border in order to prevent a Turkish incursion, according to pan-Arab Al-Mayadeen TV, based in Lebanon.