BEIJING: In mid-October, the Communist Party will hold its 20th National Congress, which will elect a new slate of party leaders. Jun Mai examines how the Informal Retirement Conference will affect the transition to power in the first of a three-part series on personnel reshuffle rules.

Top Chinese leaders rarely have the option of slowly retiring.
They are in the news every night during prime time. When retirement day approaches, they suddenly disappear and rarely make any public comment or appearance. We do not know much about their daily activities.

The biggest mystery is the process of deciding when to retire. Since the Communist Party's first peaceful transfer of power in 2002, the unwritten rule that Politburo members must retire at age 68 has remained the only guideline for these individuals. After decades of political unrest, it was established to gradually energize the party and ensure smooth transition of power at the top.

When President Xi Jinping, who is 69, is elected for a third term as the party's supreme leader at the 20th Party Congress beginning on October 16, it follows that rule since Mao Zedong's death in 1976. follows. The first exception would be.

The key question at this point is which of Xi's 24 Politburo counterparts will get the same exemption.

By that time eleven more members of the Politburo would have been unofficially retired. Two of them are part of the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the party's top decision-making body headed by Xi.

Most experts contacted by the Post said Xi would have the privilege of defying the unofficial retirement age rule at the politburo level. However, there may be exceptions in some circumstances, such as the case of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is already 68 years old but still a candidate to join the Politburo.

Everyone is waiting to see how Xi, who has been hailed as the third undisputed paramount leader in party history, will draft a new set of guidelines for the transfer of power.

According to Zhu Zhiqun, a political scientist at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, "Xi is a man with a strong historical mission who feels that much can be achieved under his continued leadership."

Xi has taken a number of risky moves when it comes to leadership changes, including ending the presidential term limit in 2018 and not promoting a clear successor after his first term.

Third, according to experts, the President may be reluctant to waive the age restriction for all.
According to Zhu, at the 20th Party Congress, most likely, those who have reached retirement age will be replaced.

Others would largely adhere to age restrictions, according to Deng Yuwen, former editor of the Central Party school newspaper Study Times.

The positive is that it is fair to everyone (except Xi), but the negative is that it will still force capable individuals to resign, he said. "I believe they will still largely follow the rules, but certain positions may be given special attention, such as those involving foreign policy."

When the Congress convenes, both China's top diplomats—Politburo member Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang—will have reached the appropriate retirement age for their positions. Yang is 72 years old, while Wang will turn 69 in October.

There are some rising stars in international relations, but none are as powerful or influential as Yang or Wang. Some analysts predicted that Wang would likely capture Yang and succeed Yang as China deals with an external environment that is becoming more complex and challenging.

The same age restriction would in principle apply to Xi's trusted economic advisor, Liu He, who is 70. Three top generals of the People's Liberation Army will also have to resign in line with age restrictions.

The problem for Xi is that he will either have to pay too much extra or lose out on individuals who have a good track record and who are still active and vibrant.

Political scientist Yang Dali at the University of Chicago predicted that Xi would choose to adhere to the age limit.

There aren't many signs they'll break, especially when the top executive wants to outdo the younger officers; In that case, you will need some people to resign from your posts, he said.

He also mentioned how strictly the retirement age of 65 years was enforced at the ministerial level.

The Post has learned that some ministerial-level officers have also received official notices that their services are no longer required at the age of 65.

A notable exception is Luo Huyning, who was appointed to the top position in the central government liaison office in Hong Kong a few months before the age of 65, during the height of protests against the city's anti-extradition bill in 2020.

The retirement rule is still largely adhered to at the ministerial level because doing so would cause decision-making to become significantly more expensive, according to Yang Dali. 

"There are many deputies in the Chinese system, including vice-premiers and vice-ministers, which makes it somewhat simpler to fill the vacancies. It's not as if your talent would run out.

The selection of the president's successor represents the main challenge facing Xi and the party in terms of the transfer of power, according to Zhu.

He said, "The question is whether he will stay for only another five years or for the foreseeable future." It all comes down to how to smoothly transition power from him to a successor five or ten years from now, but there is currently no obvious candidate.

By the time the second term of the party's top leader began in the past 30 years, a clear successor would typically have joined the Politburo Standing Committee. That person would typically be given a thorough and diverse portfolio because they are still young enough to serve three more terms.

Following their ascent to Politburo Standing Committee membership, both Xi and his predecessor Hu Jintao served as vice presidents for a term, designating them as the heir apparent. However, Wang Qishan, then 69, was appointed vice president in 2018 despite not being a member, derailing what had become a succession train.

In the party's highest echelons, there are no young candidates to succeed Xi.

The party will need to identify and develop the next generation of leadership shortly after the party congress, according to Zhu, to ensure stability and a smooth transfer of power.

The party takes pride in the fact that it is governed by more than 3,600 rules and directives, but the 25-member Politburo does not have any established procedures for changing the leadership.

The members of the top decision-making body, who are always in high-ranking state or party positions, have the ability to vote and express their opinions on the most crucial matters affecting China.

The first orderly change in the top leadership since the party was founded in 1921 was reportedly made possible in 2002 thanks to a set of rules known as "seven up, eight down" that put some restrictions on the behind-closed-doors haggling over the top seats.
All Politburo members older than 68 resigned at the 16th party congress in 2002 and the two that followed. However, there was no assurance that those who were younger than 67 would keep their seats.

Many praised the unwritten rule as evidence that the party's volatile politics were changing for the better. Former People's Daily deputy editor Zhou Ruijin called it "spectacular." progress” in 2008.

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