The spillover has already begun before the Taliban have even entered Kabul. City after city is falling as the Islamist rebels draw closer to the capital. And it will only get worse from here as the conflict expands beyond Afghanistan’s borders.

Jihadist groups based in the country, some with transnational agendas like al-Qaeda, now have a template for defeating governments backed by major powers and have been cheered by the Taliban’s lightning-fast advance. This is happening as the jihadi ecosystem is experiencing the lowest counter-terrorism pressure in the last two decades, effectively getting free rein. Asfandyar Mir, South Asia security analyst for the U.S. Institute for Peace, says it’s a dangerous combination when threats go up at the same time efforts to combat them go down.

Now Taliban has warned India against any military intervention in Afghanistan, saying the Indian government will face results if it sends its troops to the war-torn country. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said that India should take a lesson from the fate that the U.S-led NATO alliance suffered in Afghanistan and not indulge in Afghanistan militarily. He however assured India and other nations that the Taliban won't harm their embassies in Kabul or attack the diplomatic staff. India meanwhile has readied its plan to evacuate diplomats and civilians from Afghanistan if the situation deteriorates further.

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