The Year 2024 Lookback: has been a year of dramatic shifts in the US, with Donald Trump making a stunning return to the White House. His victory came after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid following a poor performance in a key debate. Trump, a convicted felon who survived two assassination attempts during his campaign, defeated Kamala Harris, the Indian-origin Vice President, in a highly contentious race. His return to the presidency, after a four-year gap, has sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party, crushing hopes of seeing the first female President of the United States.

Trump's return marks a historical milestone, as he becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland--132 years ago--to return to office after being evicted from the White House.

As the Biden administration prepares to step down, the relationship between India and the US is "in a very strong place," according to a senior official. Despite challenges ahead, it is expected that the India-US ties will continue to enjoy bipartisan support under Trump’s second term. However, there are emerging issues that could test this relationship, including an ongoing indictment related to an alleged assassination attempt on a Sikh separatist and another involving Indian billionaire Gautam Adani. Trump has also raised concerns about imposing high tariffs on Indian imports.

In the world’s largest democracy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a historic third term in the same year. Modi wasted no time congratulating Trump on his "historic" win, expressing a desire to strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Modi’s relations with both President Biden and Trump have been strong, and the bilateral ties between India and the US have seen substantial growth in recent years.

Between June 2023 and September 2024, the two leaders hosted each other for significant visits. Biden hosted Modi for a State Visit to Washington in June 2023, and Modi visited New Delhi in September for the G-20 Summit. In June 2024, they met again in Italy during the G7 Summit. Three months later, Modi traveled to the US for the 4th Quad Leaders’ Summit in Wilmington, Delaware.

Following their meeting at the summit, Biden stated that the "US-India partnership is stronger, closer, and more dynamic than ever before," with a joint statement declaring it the "defining partnership of the 21st century."

The relationship, however, has not been sans its challenges. In 2023, tensions flared when the Biden administration charged Indian national Nikhil Gupta over a foiled plot to assassinate Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on US soil. In October 2024, another Indian national, former government employee Vikash Yadav, was charged by US authorities in connection with the plot.

Meanwhile, in November, the US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Gautam Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and other individuals in a bribery scheme worth USD 250 million. The US Attorney’s Office also unsealed criminal charges against them. India has maintained that these are legal matters involving private firms and individuals, and the procedures will follow due process.

As Trump begins his second term, his administration is expected to include several Indian-Americans in key positions. Vivek Ramaswamy will head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Tulsi Gabbard will lead the National Intelligence Directorate, and Kash Patel is expected to head the FBI, among others. These appointments signal the growing influence of the Indian-American community in US politics.

On the complex relationship, a senior administration official noted that the US-India partnership has become "increasingly complex, diverse, and deep," acknowledging that challenges will arise but emphasizing the importance of addressing them together.

Looking ahead, Trump has been vocal about imposing reciprocal tariffs in retaliation for India's high tariffs on American imports, raising concerns about trade tensions. However, the outgoing Biden administration is confident that the strong ties between India and the US will continue into the next administration. Kurt Campbell, Deputy Secretary of State, expressed confidence that the relationship will be handed over to Trump’s team at its peak, with key sectors like technology, finance, and defense supporting it.

Jon Finer, Principal Deputy National Security Advisor, noted that bipartisan consensus on the India-US partnership has strengthened over the years, ensuring that the relationship will remain robust even amid challenges.

As we look ahead to 2025, the future of the India-US partnership remains promising, but both sides will need to navigate emerging challenges carefully to preserve the progress made during the past years.