New Delhi: The statement made by the country's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Ola and Uber companies seems to be close to reality, in cities with metros like Delhi Mumbai, cars with two and three cars are now getting depleted. Tony Seba is a lecturer at Stanford University. He gives Lectures worldwide. He has written a book, titled Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation. He usually starts his lecture by showing a picture.
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In 1900, only marauders are seen on New York City's 5th Avenue street, says Tony. Only cars on the same road in 1913 are cars. That is, in only 13 years, the car drove the horse racing out of the market. In front of the technology, the horseman lost. In another example, Tony says that 2000 was the most successful year in the history of Kodak. The company earned a record $ 1.4 billion profit this year.
After only 4 years, in 2004, Kodak went bankrupt. Actually, the technique of digital photography ended the market for Kodak. This is called Disruption in the language of trade and commerce. Whenever there was a new invention and new product came in the market in the 20th century, it took 10-20 years to catch it. But today in the 21st century, the same work is done in two to four years.
The same happened with Black and White TV, from 1950 to 1965 color TV market was just 2%. It increased to 80% between 1965 and 1980 and by 1984 black and white TV was completely out of the market. 1965 was the tipping point for Color TV (the time at which changes or effects cannot be stopped). Due to the change in technology, we have seen many big business houses slowly ending. The latest example of this is also Jio, due to which the market of other service provider companies has decreased.
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Guessing the future, Tony Seba says that another such tipping point is coming in 2020. When software such as electric vehicles, driverless vehicles and Uber, these three will change the picture of the automobile world in the next 5 years. The big companies that do not move with time are sure to end, the current circumstances are showing that it has started, as will be done with some automobile companies as the merger is doing with mobile companies.
Tony has predicted that by 2030 the market will be occupied by a driverless electric car, and the governments of that time will ban today's hand-driven driver cars as they will then become more lethal in terms of security. Apart from this, self-ownership of the car will end by 2030 and the cars on the road will only run by companies like Tesla, Google, Uber and will be available as per demand. Consumption of petrol diesel will reduce by 30% due to electric cars and the economy of all oil-producing countries will collapse and they can go bankrupt.
EV means that a car powered by electricity will be 100 times cheaper than an oil powered car and its life will also be 100 times more than today's car. In the coming time, that is, after 5 or 10 years from now, driving a car will become so cheap that only tires will be spent in the car, the rest of the expenses will be almost cipher. It has already started and driverless cars have started running in Singapore.
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