United States: President Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine has sparked a deep debate about how the West will react if Russia's "territorial integrity" is threatened.
It's not a hoax, Putin said, "those who are trying to extort us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can also turn in their direction." However, analysts are not sure that the Russian president is ready to use nuclear weapons for the first time since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
To better understand the possible consequences of Russia's nuclear attack incident, AFP spoke to a number of experts and officials.
According to analysts, Moscow will likely use one or more "tactical" nuclear bombs. Compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US tactical warhead, or the 58 megaton bombs that Russia tested in 1961, the explosive power of these weapons, which range from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons, is significantly less.
In comparison, tactical nuclear weapons are designed to fight and win limited-scale wars, while tactical nuclear weapons are designed to fight and win full-scale wars.
The terms, however small and limited, are relative: only 15 kilotons of nuclear energy was contained in the disastrous atomic bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
According to analysts, Russia will aim to divide Ukraine's Western supporters and threaten to submit it to talks if it uses a strategic nuclear bomb in the country.
Mark Canyon, a military expert at the CSIS International Security Program, predicted that Russia would not use nuclear weapons in war.
Twenty small nuclear bombs might be needed to capture 20 miles (32 km) of land, which would be a small reward for the enormous risks associated with the use of nuclear weapons and nuclear fallout. Cancian declared that using one would not be enough.
Instead, Moscow could send a clear message, while minimizing casualties by detonating nuclear bombs over water or over Ukraine to produce an electromagnetic pulse that would disable electronic equipment.
Putin could cause even more destruction and death by attacking a Ukrainian military base or a large city like Kyiv, resulting in many casualties and a possible assassination of the country's political elite.
According to John Wolfstall, a former White House nuclear policy expert, such scenarios would be "designed to split the NATO alliance and divide the global consensus against Putin." However, he added that "it is not clear whether this will be successful and it can easily be seen as a frustration over resolution."
The choices are tough, and the West has not clarified how it will respond to a strategic nuclear attack. NATO and the United States do not want to prepare for an inherent nuclear threat.
However, they would also like to prevent the possibility that the conflict in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, could spread and turn into a massively destructive nuclear war.
According to experts, the West will be forced to act, and any response should come from the whole of NATO, not just the United States.
According to Wolfstall, the goal of any response "should be to ensure that such a strike does not improve Putin's military position, and consequently damage his political, economic and personal position."
The United States has about 100 strategic nuclear weapons stationed in NATO countries, and they are ready to retaliate against Russian forces.
According to Matthew Kronig of the Atlantic Council, doing so would show resolve and serve as a warning to Moscow about the dangerousness of its actions.
He added that it "could also provoke Russian nuclear retaliation, increasing the risk of a major nuclear exchange and further humanitarian catastrophe."
The nuclear response may be rejected by some NATO members, which would aid Putin's efforts to dismantle the coalition.
According to experts, it may be more effective to respond to a Russian nuclear attack by a more conventional military or diplomatic means and equip Ukraine with more powerful weapons to attack Russia.
According to Kronig, "Russian nuclear use could provide an opportunity to persuade nations that have so far been reluctant – such as India and perhaps even China – to participate in the escalating sanctions."
The US could also provide Ukraine with NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries and ATACMS long-range missiles that the Ukrainian military could use to launch attacks inside Russia.
“I think we remove all of them,” Canyon said, “whatever sanctions we have on the Ukrainian forces—and I think we do have some restrictions.”
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