RIYADH: Al Raji Capital predicted that Saudi Arabia's projected revenue for 2023 will be based on a Brent price of $76 a barrel in an analysis of the kingdom's financial position.
"For 2023, we believe oil revenues to reach SR754 billion ($200.7 billion) and non-oil revenues to reach SR417 billion," according to Mazen Al Sudairi, head of research at Al Raji Capital.
Also Read: India is planning to steal factories from China for US$1.2 trillion
According to our analysis, the government's budgetary revenue for 2023 is probably based on the assumption that a barrel of oil will cost around $76.
Al-Razhi Capital predicts that real GDP growth will grow by about 8% year-on-year in 2022 and 3.1% year-on-year in 2023.
According to Al-Razhi, inflation will be 2.6 percent in 2022 and 2.1 percent in 2023, respectively.
Though the budget expenditure is significantly higher than what was announced earlier, the revised 2022 revenue is largely in line with the estimates, it said.
Also Read: Financial Inclusion: Ministry to launch special campaign from Oct 15
According to the preliminary budget statement from the Kingdom's Ministry of Finance, spending will total SR1.11 trillion and income will total SR1.12 trillion in 2019.
The spending budget for 2023 was increased by 18%, and a small fiscal surplus of SR9 billion is projected for the next year.
The world's largest oil exporter is projected to close its books in the coming year after emerging with a rapidly consolidating balance sheet as a result of recovery in crude.
Saudi officials announced their intention to reduce their reliance on the petrodollar and "decouple" the kingdom's spending from oil price volatility, which leaves the country's economy vulnerable to market volatility.
In the second quarter of 2022, it reported a SR78 billion budget surplus, an increase of nearly 50% from the same period in 2017.
According to the ministry, the second quarter of this year had a revenue of SR370.4 billion and an expenditure of SR292.5 billion.
According to ministry estimates, oil revenue in the second quarter reached SR250.4 billion, an increase of 89 percent compared to the same period last year.
The Kingdom's non-oil revenue increased to SR120 billion in the second quarter, but only 3%.
Also Read: "UK travel is on sale" as the falling pound draws Americans
According to ministry data, household debt rose to SR604.8 billion at the end of June, from SR558.8 billion in the first half.
According to finance ministry data, the state's external debt declined from SR379.3 billion to SR361.8 billion during that time.
According to Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan, the state's general budget targets for fiscal year 2023 represent a continuation of the effort to improve and strengthen the state's financial position.
To support economic growth, "the government attaches great importance to support and reform the social security system and accelerate the pace of strategic spending on Vision (2030) programs and major projects," Al-Jadaan continued.
After implementing several policies and measures aimed at shielding the economy from the effects of inflation and supply chain difficulties, the Minister said that the economy of the State has proved its strength and stability by achieving high growth rate.