According to the State Bank of India's research paper, the FY22 real GDP estimates are Rs 18,000 crore higher than the Budget 2022 estimates. According to SBI Ecowrap, the only sectors that are not out of the woods are trade, hotels, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services. It also stated that the absolute numbers in these sectors in Q3 are still 95 percent lower than the pre-pandemic level or Q3 FY20.
The report comes after the government's statistics office announced on Monday that GDP increased by 5.4 percent in the October-December quarter, owing primarily to weak manufacturing output and investment. "GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 38.22 lakh crore, compared to Rs 36.26 lakh crore in Q3 of 2020-21, representing a 5.4 percent increase," according to the data.
According to the SBI Ecowrap, "for the full fiscal year, GDP growth is expected to be 8.9 percent (SBI: 8.8 percent) and GVA growth is expected to be 8.3 percent, as growth appears to have lost momentum." Q4 GDP growth is 4.8 percent, up from 8.9 percent in Q3. Given the impact (though not as severe) of the Omicron variant and the Russia-Ukraine crisis in Q4, we believe that Q4 GDP growth will be lower than 4.8 percent, pushing GDP FY22 real GDP growth below 8.9 percent, with a downward bias toward the lower end of the spectrum of consensus estimates hovering around 8-10 percent."
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