The Centre for Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research (CVoter) exit poll predicts a strong win for Congress in the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, projecting the party to secure between 50 and 58 seats in the 90-member assembly. With the majority mark set at 45, Congress is expected to surpass this with ease, gaining a significant advantage over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). If these predictions prove accurate, Congress will return to power in Haryana after nearly a decade of being in opposition.

A Turning Point for Congress
This election could be a crucial moment for Congress, which has faced challenges in recent years. The CVoter poll, based on over 13,000 interviews across all 90 constituencies, signals a potential turning point for the party.

Impact on National Politics and the INDIA Bloc
A Congress victory in Haryana would provide much-needed momentum for the party heading into the 2029 general elections, strengthening its foothold in North India and giving a boost to the opposition alliance, the INDIA bloc. "This win would give Congress the momentum it needs for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, particularly in northern states where it has struggled," political analysts said.

The exit poll’s forecast follows Congress' improved performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the party secured five of Haryana's 10 parliamentary seats. A victory in the state elections would further solidify its position.

Haryana's Importance as an Agricultural Hub
Haryana's importance extends beyond politics. As a key agricultural state, the results could reflect strong support from the farming community, especially after the widespread protests against the now-repealed farm laws. Farmers continue to demand a law guaranteeing a Minimum Support Price (MSP), and many view Congress as a champion of their cause. "The farm law protests have left a lasting impact on Haryana's rural electorate," said a farmer leader.

The BJP, in power since 2014, is projected to win only 20–28 seats, a steep decline from the 40 seats it secured in 2019. Anti-incumbency and the farmers' protests seem to have eroded its support base.

Congress' Broad Support from Dalits and Jats
Congress’ success in Haryana can be attributed to its ability to attract a broad range of voters, particularly Dalits and Jats. Dalits make up 20% of the state's population, and the Jat community comprises about 25% of the electorate. Congress' careful strategy of focusing on Jat votes without announcing a Chief Ministerial candidate appears to have helped maintain unity within the party. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a prominent Jat leader, led the campaign but avoided staking a claim to the CM post before the election.

Economic Shifts: Loss of Gurugram
A Congress win would also mean gaining control over Gurugram, one of India’s major economic and tech hubs. The city generated Rs 2,600 crore in excise revenue in 2022-23, making it a vital economic center. Losing Gurugram would deal a blow to the BJP, especially after its defeats in other tech-driven regions like Karnataka and Telangana.

Influence on Upcoming State Elections
A victory in Haryana would have broader political implications, influencing upcoming elections in neighboring states like Punjab, where Congress has traditionally had a strong presence. Analysts suggest that success in Haryana could help Congress reclaim ground in Punjab, where the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) currently holds power.

Additionally, Congress' win would energize the INDIA bloc as it looks to challenge the BJP in other states, including Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

Key Candidates and Constituencies
As voting concludes, notable candidates include Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, contesting from Ladwa, and Bhupinder Singh Hooda from Garhi Sampla-Kiloi. BJP's Anil Vij from Ambala Cantt and Congress' Vinesh Phogat from Julana are also key figures to watch.

The dynamics between political alliances have shifted, with the BJP ending its partnership with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which has now allied with the Aazad Samaj Party. Congress remains part of the INDIA bloc but did not enter a seat-sharing agreement with AAP for the state polls.

Congress Poised for a Comeback
If exit polls hold true, Congress is set to return to power in Haryana, marking a significant political shift after a decade of opposition. This victory would not only strengthen Congress in Haryana but also have a ripple effect on its prospects in other states, positioning the party for further success in upcoming elections.

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