Ankara: After narrowly missing out on winning Turkiye's presidential election in the first round, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on track for an overwhelming runoff victory on Monday. The election will take place in two weeks.
Final results revealed that Erdogan had defeated his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who received 44.9 percent of the vote, and nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who received 5.2 percent, to win 49.5% of the vote, defying pollsters and the worst economic crisis since the 1990s. Almost 90% of people participated.
Erdogan's victory was "staggering," according to emerging markets economist Timothy Ash. "At this moment, he has the magic dust. He only attracts nationalist, socially conservative Turks.
According to Teneo's Wolfango Piccoli, "Erdogan now has a clear psychological lead against the opposition. Over the next two weeks, he will likely intensify his narratives about national security.
The majority of analysts think that before the historic runoff on May 28, Kilicdaroglu and his six-party opposition alliance will struggle to slow Erdogan's progress.
Erdogan winning is likely to happen, according to Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy, who put the probability at 80%.
Even though the economy remained voters' top concern, the results "show that Erdogan and his allies successfully bolstered the incumbent's support with strong messaging on terrorism, security, and family values," Peker said.
Hamdi Kurumahmut, a 40-year-old supporter of Erdogan who works in the tourism industry in Istanbul, was full of optimism the morning following the most significant election in Turkiye's modern history.
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"Erdogan will triumph. He really is a leader. The Turks have faith in him. He has a plan for Turkiye," the man declared.
There are areas where the economy, education, or refugee policy could use improvement. But we are confident that he will be able to resolve everything.
Political risk consultant Anthony Skinner said the outcome underlined the difficulty of trying to gauge public opinion in a strongly polarised nation of 85 million people as pollsters who had predicted a Kilicdaroglu victory started an investigation.
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Numerous pre-election public opinion poll results, the author claimed, "did not adequately capture Erdogan's nimbleness and the extent of support he still enjoys in the country." It only serves to highlight the need for caution when searching.
