Jacob Peenikaparambil- Article: Pew Research Centre’s latest report titled “Religious Composition of India” has highlighted that currently there is no population explosion in India and fertility is the major factor in deciding the religious demography in India. The study examines the fertility rates of the three major religious groups: Hindus, Muslims and Christians.

According to the study, there has been a steep decline in Indian population across all religions during 1951- 2015. The average fertility rates for Muslims, Hindus, and Christians in 1992 were 4.4, 3.3, and 2.9 percent respectively.  Today, it is 2.6, 2.1, and 2.0 percent respectively for Muslims, Hindus and Christians. The difference in the fertility rate between Muslims and Hindus narrowed down from 1.1 to 0.5% within a period of 65 years.

The number of children for Indian women declined from an average of 3.4 per woman in the early 1990s to 2.2 in 2015 and the rate among Muslims fell even more steeply from 4.4 to 2.6.

The Pew study is based on data available in India's decennial census and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), and it examines how the country's religious composition has changed, and the main reasons behind the changes.

The analysis of data is done from three aspects: birth, migration and conversion, as they are the three factors affecting the demography in India. According to the authors of the report, migration and conversion are not major factors affecting religious demography in India. More than 99% of people who live in India were born in India. Migrants leaving India outnumber immigrants, three- to-one, and religious minorities are more likely than Hindus to leave. 

The report has highlighted the impact of education on the fertility rate. The women who opt to go for higher education tend to marry later and have their first child later. Education also often leads to employment and greater access to family planning resources, both of which tend to limit fertility. 

The study report has some takeaways for policy makers and political and religious leaders of India. First of all, the study demonstrates that the allegations of large scale conversion of Hindus to Islam and Christianity is unfounded, as conversion has been very insignificant factor in the case of India. Hence the relevance of “love jihad” laws passed by some states is questionable.

Secondly, the study has brought to light that fertility rate depends on various factors. Linking it only to religion is a false and unscientific approach. Empowerment of women through education, employment etc, is a very important factor in deciding the fertility rate.

Thirdly, the proposal to bring in a law to limit the number of children to two, and punish the couple who have more than two children is totally unwarranted because at present there is no population explosion in India. Pew Research Centre’s report clearly indicates that the population of India is moving towards replacement level.

Some political and religious leaders have unnecessarily raised the issue of religious conversion through mixed marriages between Muslim men and women belonging to other faiths without any concrete proof. In a pluralist country like India mixed marriages will contribute to unity in diversity.  The report will be helpful to political leaders and policy makers in the task formulating policies related to population.  

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