India's GDP growth is expected to be at (-) 7.4 percent in FY21 on better than projected recovery, said an SBI research report, upgrading its earlier forecast of (-) 10.9 percent. The report also believes that it would take seven quarters from the fourth quarter of FY21 for GDP to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms. "We now expect GDP decline for the full year (FY21) to be in single digits at 7.4 percent (compared to our earlier prediction of (-) 10.9 percent), aligned with RBI and markets' revised forecasts post Q2," SBI said in its research report - Ecowrap.

It said the revised GDP estimates are based on SBI 'Nowcasting Model' with 41 high-frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy. Based on this model, the forecasted GDP growth for the third quarter would be around 0.1 percent (with downward bias), it said. Out of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 58 percent are showing an acceleration in the third quarter. Apart from Q3 FY21, the Q4 growth will also be in positive territory (at 1.7 percent).

 However, all projections are conditional on the absence of another wave of infections, the report said. The research report forecast FY22 GDP growth to be at 11 percent, primarily due to base effect. The report said it will take almost seven quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 percent.

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