Iran is grappling with a significant foreign policy setback following the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a critical ally. The collapse of Assad's regime has left Iran's "Axis of Resistance" severely weakened, amplifying domestic unrest and economic struggles. As Tehran downplays the event, it faces mounting challenges to maintain its regional influence while preparing for the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.
A Disrupted Alliance
A tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria was forced to reverse course just before reaching the Suez Canal upon hearing of Assad's fall. This marked a stark reality: Iran's longstanding role as a sponsor of the Syrian regime has diminished to that of a powerless observer. The collapse of Assad’s government shattered Iran’s foreign policy framework and left Tehran scrambling to respond.
While Iranian officials claimed to have anticipated the outcome, they were unprepared for the swift collapse of Syrian forces. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi admitted that although they knew Assad's grip was loosening, the rapid surrender of Syrian troops caught them off guard. Just days before, Araghchi had posted a photo from Damascus, unaware of the dramatic turn of events that would soon unfold.
Implications for Iran’s Leadership
The loss of Syria comes at a time when Iran is already under immense internal pressure. Spiraling inflation, U.S. sanctions, and public dissent have left the Islamic Republic vulnerable. The weakening of Iran's key allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, further diminishes its influence in the region. Economist Saeed Laylaz warned that the greatest threat to Iran now comes from within, as protests against the clerical regime grow more frequent.
Iran's leadership has attempted to frame the withdrawal from Syria as a strategic choice rather than a forced retreat. However, experts argue that Tehran is merely buying time to reassess its regional strategy. Sanam Vakil, a Middle East analyst, suggested that Iran is likely to recalibrate its approach while bracing for challenges such as Trump’s possible return to the White House, which could reignite economic pressures and geopolitical tensions.
Regional Dynamics and the Role of Israel
The upheaval in Syria has intensified regional rivalries. Israel, emboldened by Assad’s fall, has escalated military operations targeting Iranian assets across the region. Iranian leaders fear that Israel’s expanding influence could eventually threaten their borders. Mohsen Rezaee, a veteran Iranian commander, expressed concern that Israel’s offensive could extend from Syria into Iraq and ultimately Iran.
Domestic Challenges and Future Prospects
Domestically, Iran faces critical challenges, including public dissatisfaction with autocratic policies and a deteriorating economy. The recent enforcement of the controversial "Chastity and Hijab" law has further fueled resentment, particularly among women. Analysts warn that such measures may provoke another wave of protests, compounding the regime's instability.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has prioritized reviving the 2015 nuclear deal to stabilize Iran’s economy and attract foreign investment. However, the prospect of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons remains a concern for international observers, who fear this could escalate tensions in an already volatile region.
In spite of these setbacks, the leadership of Iran is unlikely to abandon its regional ambitions. Tehran is expected to carefully observe developments in Syria and adapt its strategy to regain influence. Diako Hosseini, an academic in Tehran, emphasized that Iran will "weigh its options and craft a new policy to navigate the post-Assad era."
The fall of Assad represents a pivotal moment for Iran, challenging its leadership to address domestic unrest while rethinking its role on the regional stage.
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