A government appointed committee says, by the end of February 2021, the global pandemic of Covid-19  in India will have been controlled with minimal active symptomatic infections,  with the provision that all safety protocols have to be followed. The union government had constituted the IIT Prof M Vidyasagar-led committee to evolve a national super model for Covid-19 progression in an aim to in order to help the government make short-term and medium-term plans and decisions.

As part of its study “Progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: prognosis and lockdown impact”, the committee had to measure the effects of lockdown, the impact of migrants returning home on the spread of the infection and economic optimization. The findings have been published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research. The committee concluded that India had already crossed its Covid-19 peak in mid-September. It said the country would record minimal active symptomatic infections by early next year if safety protocols are followed.

“If there was no lockdown, we would have had a peak that was fifteen times higher in the middle of June, which would have been overwhelming. By enforcing the lockdown in March, we not only decreased the load on our system but also pushed the peak to September from the projected May-end,” said Vidyasagar. He added that with no lockdown, the pandemic would have led to a peak load of more than 140 lakh cases by June this year. Although the committee predicts that the ensuing festival and winter seasons may increase the susceptibility to infection, it did not recommend district and higher level lockdowns any further.

The committee will carry on working on many other matters concerning the current pandemic forecasting. It will also develop robust models for the future pandemics if any so that the decision-making processes are fast-tracked when the need arises without lag time.

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