India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract by 8 pc in 2020-21, according to the latest round of FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey. The annual median growth forecast by the industry body is based on responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The survey was conducted in January.
The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been pegged at 3.5 pc for 2020-21.
"Agriculture sector has exhibited significant resilience in the face of the pandemic. Higher rabi acreage, good monsoons, higher reservoir levels and strong growth in tractor sales indicate continued buoyancy in the sector," FICCI stated on the survey findings.
However, the industry and services sector, which were most severely hit due to the pandemic induced economic fallout, are expected to contract by 10 pc and 9.2 pc respectively during 2020-21.
The quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by 1.3 pc in the third quarter of 2020-21. The growth is expected to be in the positive terrain by the fourth quarter with a projection of 0.5 pc growth," estimates the survey.
Further, on the estimates of other macro parameters, the survey participants put the median growth forecast for IIP at (-) 10.7 pc for the year 2020-21, with a minimum and maximum range of (-) 12.5 pc and (-) 9.5 pc respectively. The WPI-based inflation rate is projected to be flat in 2020-21. On the other hand, CPI-based inflation has a median forecast of 6.5 pc for 2020-21, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.8 pc and 6.6 pc respectively, the survey revealed.
IMF projects 11.5 pc growth rate for India in 2021
Overseas investment by Indian firm slips 42 pc to USD 1.45 bn in Dec: RBI data
