According to a Reuters poll, India's retail inflation accelerated to a 16-month high of 6.35 percent in March, well beyond the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance zone for the third month in a row, owing in part to a sustained rise in food costs.

Because the pass-through to consumers at gas pumps was delayed, the entire impact of the surge in crude oil and global energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February is not likely to manifest in consumer prices until April.

Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), climbed to 6.35 percent in March from 6.07 percent in February, according to a Reuters survey of 48 economists conducted April 4-8. It's the highest reading since November 2020. 6.06 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively. Nobody expected it to dip below 6%, the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band.

"We expect headline inflation to have accelerated to 6.30 percent year on year as food prices surged up in sequential terms following a three-month decrease until February," ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim said, referring to the seasonal trend in monthly fluctuations in food costs.

Food prices, which account for roughly half of all inflation, are projected to stay high as supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict impair global grain output, edible oil supplies, and fertiliser exports.

Palm oil, the world's most extensively used vegetable oil, has seen an almost 50% increase in price this year. Food price increases are particularly felt by millions of people living in poverty, who have already lost employment and income as a result of the pandemic.

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