NEW YORK: In the first competitive congressional election since the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated national abortion rights, New York state voters go to the polls on Tuesday. This election could serve as a proxy for the battles for House control in November.

Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro are running for an open seat in the House of Representatives in a special election that happens to fall on the same day as party primaries in Florida, Oklahoma, and the rest of New York state. Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, the state's top two Republicans who have no primary challengers, will be challenged in November by the party's nominees for Florida.

Four Democrats are running against Rubio, with U.S. Representative Val Demings at the top of the pack. The front-runners in the Democratic primary for governor are former Republican governor and U.S. Representative Charlie Crist and state agricultural commissioner Nikki Fried. To succeed retiring Senator Jim Inhofe, either U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin or former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon will go to a run-off primary in Oklahoma. Both Mullin and Shannon are supporters of the late President Donald Trump, and the victor will probably take over as president in November.

The outcome of Tuesday's primaries will influence the balance of power in the House and Senate leading up to the 2024 presidential election, which is one of the last planned before the midterm elections on November 8. Democrats have traditionally been viewed as the underdog party due to historical tendencies, inflation, and President Joe Biden's low job approval ratings.
Republicans have a good chance of taking over the House, which would enable them to thwart Biden's legislative plans. However, the lacklustre performance of Trump-backed candidates in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania has called into question their hopes of winning the Senate.

SHOWDOWN IN NEW YORK In the special election in New York on Tuesday, both parties might get a sneak peek at the midterm elections in November. The Catskill Mountains and a portion of the Hudson Valley are included in the 19th Congressional District of New York, which is up for election between Ryan and Molinaro.

Their confrontation presents a test of Democrats' ability to divert Republican criticism of the economy to the abortion debate. Early this month, voters in the heavily Republican state of Kansas rejected a constitutional proposal that would have removed safeguards for abortion, giving Democrats cause for optimism. The executive of Ulster County and a combat veteran of the Army, Ryan, conducted his campaign on the premise that the loss of national abortion rights amounted to a "existential threat" to American democracy.

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