Kuala Lumpur: Anwar Ibrahim, the Malaysian prime minister, faces a significant first test in the state elections that take place next month and pit his administration against a strong Islamic opposition, less than a year after taking office.
According to Abdul Ghani Salleh, the head of the election commission, more than 9.7 million people will cast ballots on August 12 to choose 245 assemblymen for six states.
State elections typically have no bearing on the federal government, but they will be closely watched as a barometer of support for Anwar's unity government, which was established following a divisive general election in November.
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The Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, led by the former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, garnered more support from ethnic Malays than Anwar's multiethnic Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance, which had won the most seats in the November elections but fell short of a majority. The conservative Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), which unexpectedly grew to become the single largest party in Parliament, is a member of the PN bloc.
Anwar succeeded in forming a majority to form a unity government with the support of a formerly powerful rival, a coalition led by the United Malays National Organisation, and other smaller parties, securing him the position of premier. In Malaysian politics, which has been shaped by a long rivalry between the two parties, a partnership between Anwar's PH and the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional was once unthinkable.
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According to Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a political science lecturer at the University of Science in Malaysia, "the state elections is the first test of popularity for the unity government on a rather nationwide scale, virtually half of Malaysia." The public's reaction, particularly that of the supporters of PH and BN, who have traditionally viewed one another as rivals, will be put to the test.
The country's king requested the formation of Anwar's unity government because he wanted to end the impasse caused by the hung Parliament and establish stability following a time of political unrest. Before the November elections, Malaysia had three prime ministers in the previous four years as lawmakers switched sides for political gain.
Anwar's ascent to the top position brings to an end a turbulent political journey that lasted more than two decades and allayed concerns about further Islamization. His main challenge has been to increase his support among ethnic Malays, many of whom see Anwar as too liberal and worry that their economic privileges and Islamic identity under a long-standing affirmative action policy may be threatened. Two-thirds of Malaysia's 33 million inhabitants are Malays, including sizable ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities.
In recent months, PAS, which seeks to establish a theocratic state, has stepped up its racial and religious rhetoric in an effort to increase its influence and demonstrate that the unexpected wave of Malay support it received in November was no accident. PAS, which was previously restricted to rural areas, made significant gains in urban areas to win 49 of 222 Parliamentary seats. It has also been open about its desire to work with government lawmakers to try to overthrow Anwar.
The richest states in the nation, Penang and Selangor, as well as Negeri Sembilan, were all under the control of Anwar's PH alliance. The rural states of Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu were under PAS control. The majority of analysts predict that the polls will remain unchanged, but some claim that PAS could further erode PH's hold on the three states.
"If PN were to sweep five or all six state governments, the federal government will immediately become shaky, as many Malay MPs may be tempted to switch their support, thereby bringing about the downfall of the Anwar government," warned Oh Ei Sun of Singapore's Institute of International Affairs.
Given that Anwar's government has the strongest two-thirds majority in Parliament in the past 15 years, it might not be simple. Along with the slow economic recovery, many people are also wary of starting another round of political unrest.
The success of UMNO will be highly influenced. The UMNO-led coalition ruled Malaysia from the time it gained independence from Britain in 1957 until its defeat in the 2018 general election as a result of public outrage over public corruption. The president of UMNO, who is now one of Anwar's two deputies, is currently facing a graft trial. Analysts predicted that UMNO's poor performance could spark a rebellion by Anwar-hating groups and force a reconsideration of their alliance.
According to analyst Ahmad Fauzi, the election is primarily a contest for Malay votes because both sides are aware that support from Malaysia's majority community is essential for any government to remain stable.
