MOSCOW: Vladimir Putin, humiliated by Russia's defeat on the battlefield, faces difficult decisions: continue with the current course of action and risk a protracted conflict; Go ahead and take the risk that the situation is out of control; Or try to save some face by having direct talks with Ukraine.

The choice would depend largely on how the war developed as winter approached; Analysts warn of a slow grind that could result in more collateral damage, such as the Ukrainian missile that accidentally struck Poland on Tuesday.

The recent Russian retreat from Kherson marked Kyiv's third victory since the invasion began in February, following Russia's failure to capture the capital and the recovery of Kharkiv in a surprise counter-offensive last September.

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With their resolve to fight firm, Ukrainians are now focusing on other eastern Ukraine regions annexed by Russia, as well as Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 and which President Volodymyr Zelensky annexed Said to end the war must be reclaimed.

However, Tuesday's barrage of Russian missiles fired at civilian infrastructure across Ukraine shows that paying for Putin's decision to refuse talks for the time being will come at a high cost.

According to Cyrille Brett, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, a think tank in Paris, Russian leaders have historically never bargained from a position of weakness.

Additionally, he said that in light of the recent request to mobilize 300,000 men, "they are thinking about how to balance force with military operations as well as diplomatic and economic or even covert initiatives". How can you change it?"

For example, the conflict-based conflict triggered by Russian airstrikes could undermine Ukrainian resolve this winter, when the country's ability to conduct operations to take back territory from Russia in the east will be limited to fewer days.

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A senior Western official said under the condition of anonymity that the Russians have improved since their February arrival, when they were undoubtedly unprepared.
"The overall military strategy is becoming more coherent,"

Analysts predicted that additional Ukrainian victories on the battlefield would increase pressure for a negotiated settlement among Kyiv's Western allies who are concerned about Zelensky's desire to retake Crimea.

Many on the peninsula want to remain part of Russia because it needs a base to operate its Black Sea Fleet, despite Ukraine's claims.

According to William Alburke of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, "It is an existential issue for the Russian Navy and for the Russians themselves."

He said that if Crimea is removed from the discussion, "you take the pressure off Russia," adding that seeing Crimea as an advantage, the deal "could be to stabilize the battle line here". Is."

After discussions with other G20 leaders in Bali, French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that "the path to dialogue is not incompatible with Ukraine's resistance." Today, there is probably more agreement on this position.

To emphasize the G20 warning to prevent any nuclear escalation of the conflict, Macron has said he plans to speak with Putin in the coming days.

Some analysts predict that the US, whose military assistance is essential for Kyiv to continue fighting, will change its position.
Major US General Mark Milley said last week that there may be no chance of military victory in the conflict and there is "a window of opportunity for dialogue".

The highest-level face-to-face meeting between US and Russian officials since the start of the war took place in Ankara last week when CIA Director William Burns met with Russian spy chief Sergei Naryshkin.

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However, talks are unlikely to take place while the military situation is still fluid and both sides still believe they can gain the upper hand.

According to Alberk, Ukraine wants to make a profit in order to get into a stronger position in the winter, so fixed battle lines are not in their best interests.

However, US President Joe Biden and his administration "must think through the right time to advance the dialogue and at what point the costs of continuing to fight will outweigh the benefits," said Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington. according .

He listed three possible outcomes for the coming months that could prompt dialogue: further Ukrainian progress, a resurgent Russian offensive, or a stalemate.

She wrote in Foreign Affairs in late October, "What unites all three is that, in each, the battlefield results point to a relative consensus around which a settlement can be built.