Rishi Sunak, the UK's leader, faces a critical juncture in his leadership as lawmakers convene to deliberate on his contentious proposal of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda. This pivotal moment marks the most precarious period of Sunak's premiership, as factions within his divided Conservative party grapple with the decision ahead of parliament's session on Tuesday.

The policy, central to Sunak's strategy to curb irregular migration, has become a flashpoint in the lead-up to an anticipated general election next year. However, dissent from both right-wing and centrist factions threatens to exacerbate divisions within the ruling party, imperiling Sunak's leadership, which spans just over a year.

Following a November ruling by Supreme Court judges deeming the deportation plan illegal due to Rwanda being considered unsafe, the government unveiled a new bill last week. This proposed legislation seeks to compel judges to regard Rwanda as a safe destination for asylum seekers and grants UK ministers authority to bypass sections of human rights laws.

Nevertheless, opposition parties, human rights organizations, and moderate Tories are expressing fresh concerns, decrying potential breaches of international law by the UK. Conversely, some on the right, such as Robert Jenrick, who recently resigned as immigration minister, and former home secretary Suella Braverman, argue that the bill falls short of expectations, advocating for stronger measures including withdrawal from international treaties to prevent court obstructions.

Approximately 100 backbench MPs from various right-wing groups within the Conservatives, including the influential European Research Group (ERG) known for advocating a hardline Brexit, have supported the bill. However, the ERG highlights that while the legislation is the "toughest piece of migration legislation ever put forward by a UK government," it remains incomplete and necessitates significant amendments.

Meanwhile, the centrist One Nation group, comprising around 100 members, is poised to issue its statement, adding to the complexity of viewpoints within the party.

Tuesday's parliamentary session marks the first opportunity for MPs to vote on the legislation, referred to as the second reading. Notably, a government bill has not faced defeat at this stage in nearly four decades. However, even abstentions could undermine Sunak's leadership. He assumed office uncontested by Tory MPs in October last year after Liz Truss's brief 49-day tenure.

If the bill narrowly passes, right-wing factions are anticipated to push for amendments in subsequent stages, while the House of Lords could potentially block its progress.

Sunak has staked his commitment to "stop the boats" crossing the Channel on the Rwanda scheme, which has encountered legal hurdles since June 2022 when the first deportees were halted by an injunction from the European Court of Human Rights. This year alone, nearly 30,000 irregular migrants have crossed the Channel from northern France in basic vessels, underscoring the urgency of the ongoing debate.

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