Scotland's Slim Margin: Calculating the Scenarios for World Cup Progression
Scotland's Slim Margin: Calculating the Scenarios for World Cup Progression
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New Delhi: Zimbabwe can no longer qualify for the ODI World Cup in India later this year due to their 31-run loss to Scotland. That's because their net run rate has dropped to -0.099, partly as a result of their crushing loss to Sri Lanka, which they suffered with about 17 overs remaining.

With two games remaining, Zimbabwe had a six-point lead, but they were unable to secure the final two points necessary for qualification. All three teams — Zimbabwe, Scotland, and Netherlands — will end with six points if Netherlands defeats Scotland on Thursday.

Any victory for the Netherlands will just raise their net run rate further, which is already below Zimbabwe's, preventing Zimbabwe from placing in the top two.

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The Netherlands vs. Scotland game, and the score margins needed for those two teams to advance, are now in the spotlight. Scotland will undoubtedly advance if they win, but even if they lose, if the margin of defeat is small enough, they may still do so.

Scotland can afford to lose by up to 31 runs if Netherlands score 250 in order to maintain its lead in the run rate. If Netherlands prevails by 32 runs or more, its NRR will surpass that of Scotland. 

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If Netherlands chase it down in roughly 44.1 overs (depending on how they achieve their winning runs), Scotland will maintain their lead on NRR if they bat first and score 250. Netherlands will surpass Scotland's run pace and claim the second qualification place if they manage to catch it any sooner.

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