Jerusalem: Moments before 7 p.m. on Tuesday, the night sky over Gaza was illuminated by a volley of rockets. Videos meticulously examined by The Associated Press reveal one rocket veering off course, breaking apart in the air, and then plunging to the ground.

What precipitated the fiery explosion at Gaza's al-Ahli Arab Hospital has sparked a heated dispute, intensifying the already high tensions in the two-week-long conflict between the Israeli government and Palestinian militants. The AP conducted an extensive analysis, scrutinizing over a dozen videos that encompassed the minutes leading up to, during, and after the hospital explosion, as well as satellite imagery and photos. According to the AP's evaluation, the rocket that disintegrated in the air was launched from within Palestinian territory, and the explosion at the hospital likely occurred when a portion of that rocket impacted the ground.

The absence of concrete forensic evidence, coupled with the challenges of collecting such evidence amid a war, means that there is no definitive proof linking the rocket's breakup to the hospital explosion. Nevertheless, the AP's findings align with the views of numerous experts specializing in open-source intelligence, geolocation, and rocket technology.

"In the absence of additional evidence, the most likely scenario would be that it was a rocket launched from Gaza that failed mid-flight and that it mistakenly hit the hospital," noted Henry Schlottman, a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and open-source intelligence expert.

AP's Investigative Findings

The AP's conclusion was based on a comprehensive review that included over a dozen videos from diverse sources like news broadcasts, security cameras, and social media posts. These videos were cross-referenced with satellite images and photos taken before the explosion.

One pivotal video captured a live broadcast by the Arabic-language news channel Al Jazeera shortly before 7 p.m. local time. The footage revealed a series of rockets being launched from the vicinity of Gaza City. One of these rockets deviated from its trajectory, steering away from the distant lights of Israel and back towards Gaza City. The rocket fragmented in mid-flight, and a fragment fell to the ground, followed by another fragment that shot upwards and then exploded, leaving a trail of sparks. A small explosion was witnessed on the ground in the distance, and two seconds later, a more substantial blast occurred. The live broadcast's timestamp indicated 6:59 p.m. Gaza time.

By utilizing maps and satellite imagery, the AP pinpointed the location of the explosion seen in Al Jazeera's footage as an upper floor in the building housing Al Jazeera's Gaza bureau, which is less than a mile from the al-Ahli Arab Hospital. Cross-referencing with other structures in the frame confirmed that the explosion at 6:59 p.m. was in the precise direction of the hospital.

A second video, captured from an Israeli vantage point at the same time as the Al Jazeera footage, displayed at least 17 rockets being launched from within Gaza, followed by a substantial explosion on the Palestinian side of the border. This camera was located in Netiv Ha'asara, an Israeli community situated near the border wall, and faced southwest, corroborating that the rocket launches and the explosion were directed towards Gaza City.

A third video, from Israeli news station Channel 12, was filmed from the upper floor of its building in Netivot, approximately 10 miles southeast of Gaza City's hospital. This video also documented the barrage of rockets fired at 6:59 p.m.

When viewed together, these three videos indicate that multiple rockets were launched from Gaza, with one seemingly breaking apart in the air about three seconds before the hospital explosion.

At 7 p.m., a mere minute after the explosion, Hamas' military wing, al-Qassam Brigades, claimed responsibility for firing a rocket barrage at the Israeli coastal city of Ashdod, located approximately 30 miles north of Gaza. Islamic Jihad, a militant group working alongside Hamas, also declared via Telegram that it had launched a rocket strike on Tel Aviv in response to a "massacre against civilians." In the subsequent hour, both groups announced additional rocket attacks on Israel.

Israel's military consistently maintained that it did not target the hospital, attributing the explosion to an errant rocket fired by the Islamic Jihad from within Gaza. This position was supported by U.S. intelligence and President Joe Biden. Israel cited the absence of a significant crater and extensive structural damage, which would typically result from an Israeli airstrike.

Hamas refuted Israel's narrative, labeling it "fabricated" and accusing Israel of punishing the hospital for disregarding a previous evacuation warning. However, Hamas has not presented any corroborating evidence.

Hamas spokesperson Ghazi Hamad expressed the group's willingness to cooperate with a United Nations investigation into the blast's cause. He criticized the hasty endorsement of Israel's account by the President of the United States and lamented what he described as Western hypocrisy.

Expert Backing for AP's Assessment

The AP enlisted the expertise of several analysts who unanimously concurred that the most probable scenario was that a rocket from Gaza experienced a malfunction, leading to its unintended impact on the hospital.

Andrea Richardson, a specialist in open-source intelligence analysis and a consultant at the Human Rights Center at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Law, pinpointed the specific landmarks in the videos that revealed the rockets' launch locations.

"From the video evidence that I have seen, it's very clear that the rockets came from within Gaza," said Richardson, an expert in human rights and war crimes investigations in the Middle East. The timing of the rocket launches, the explosion, and the initial reports of the hospital strike were consistent with the sequence of events.

The high failure rate of homemade rockets used by Gaza militants was also acknowledged by Justin Crump, CEO of Skyline, a London-based strategic advisory firm. Crump, a former British Army officer and intelligence consultant, noted that these rockets can malfunction during flight, leading to subsequent impacts on the ground. Such an unfortunate incident occurred last year when Islamic Jihad-launched rockets misfired, causing casualties among Gaza residents.

The Three-Second Gap

Some questions surrounding the rocket breakup and the subsequent hospital explosion pertain to the three-second interval between the rocket's disintegration in the sky and the hospital blast. The analyzed videos didn't reveal a visible light trail that extended to the ground.

While it's not feasible to entirely rule out the possibility of a mere coincidence in the timing of the rocket launches near the hospital and the explosion, there is no supporting evidence for this scenario. The synchronization of the rocket launches, midair failure, and hospital explosion, as indicated by the video timestamps, constitutes a logical chain of events.

The ground evidence further indicated that the impact was likely due to a malfunction in a militant rocket. About ten minutes after the video-recorded rocket launches, social media posts began to surface, with one video confirming the moment of impact near the hospital. The footage captured the sound of the rocket whizzing through the air, followed by a massive fireball and a colossal explosion. There was no visual evidence supporting claims that a car bomb or a similar device triggered the blast.

AP examined additional videos and photos, which showcased the explosion in the hospital's central parking lot and courtyard, where civilians had sought refuge following evacuation orders. Several visuals displayed burning vehicles and numerous casualties, including children.

On the morning after the explosion, AP's photos revealed no substantial crater at the impact site that would correspond to a bomb's impact, similar to those dropped by Israeli aircraft in previous strikes. The hospital buildings surrounding the explosion site remained standing without significant structural damage. A small crater in the hospital's parking area appeared to be about one meter in diameter, indicating the use of a device with a relatively smaller explosive payload. While Israel possesses smaller missiles that can be launched from helicopters and drones, there was no public evidence of such missile strikes near the al-Ahli Arab Hospital on that night.

David Shank, a retired U.S. Army colonel and an expert in military rockets and missiles, noted that the large fireball captured in the video could be explained by the fact that the malfunctioning militant rocket prematurely impacted the ground while still containing a substantial amount of propellant. This volatile fuel ignited upon impact, leading to a significant explosion but leaving behind a relatively small crater.

Hamas spokesperson Hamad maintained that Israeli officials had previously threatened al-Ahli Arab Hospital and other medical facilities, ordering their evacuation before the explosion. He argued that the rockets in possession of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad were not capable of causing such extensive damage.

Iron Dome Theory Debunked

Speculation emerged on social media in the days following the explosion, suggesting that the rocket's breakup and the ground explosion were attributed to Israel's Iron Dome defense system, designed to intercept such rockets mid-air.

Israel maintained that it doesn't employ the Iron Dome system within Gaza but rather to intercept and neutralize rockets entering Israeli airspace. Moreover, multiple videos from the time of the hospital explosion showed no visual evidence of Iron Dome missiles being launched from Israel into Gaza's airspace.

John Erath, the senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and an expert in missile defense, noted that while it could be technically feasible for Iron Dome to intercept a rocket over Gaza, it was improbable in this case, given that the projectile was still ascending early in its flight path. The Iron Dome system is designed to intercept projectiles it deems on a trajectory towards a populated part of Israel.

While not ruling out the possibility, Erath considered it unlikely based on his understanding of the system's operation.

Missile expert David Shank concurred, emphasizing that Iron Dome engages targets only when there is a perceived threat to a critical asset, such as a populated area or a vital infrastructure target. In this context, Iron Dome's primary goal is to maximize the probability of a successful interception, which did not apply over Gaza.

The tragic incident raises questions and uncertainties amidst the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As both sides continue to exchange accusations, the complexities of warfare and the challenges of investigating such incidents cast a shadow on the events surrounding the al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion.

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