Canada' s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing a sharp decline in approval ratings as the country grapples with rising living costs, a faltering healthcare system, and increasing crime. In a strategic attempt to gain support ahead of the upcoming federal elections, Trudeau appears to be appealing to the influential Sikh community, particularly those aligned with the Khalistan movement.

A recent poll shows that only 26% of Canadians believe Trudeau is the best candidate for prime minister, trailing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre by 19 points. This follows two significant losses for Trudeau’s Liberal Party in key electoral battles, including one in Montreal, a longtime Liberal stronghold.

Growing Internal Dissent

Adding to Trudeau's troubles, the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, withdrew support from the minority Liberal government shortly before the Montreal loss. Singh is a known advocate for Khalistan, a movement pushing for a separate Sikh homeland.

Dissatisfaction is growing within Trudeau’s own party, with some members calling for his resignation. There are concerns that the Liberals could face a political fate similar to the Conservative Party in the UK, which experienced a steep decline in recent years. Despite facing two no-confidence motions in Parliament, Trudeau has managed to hold onto power for now.

With over 770,000 Sikhs in Canada, a significant number of whom support the Khalistan movement, Trudeau’s outreach to this community could have considerable political implications.

Strained Relations with India

Trudeau’s policies related to pro-Khalistan separatists have long been viewed with suspicion in India. His 2018 visit to India stirred controversy after an invitation to a convicted extremist, Jaspal Atwal, was extended by the Canadian High Commission. Although the invitation was later withdrawn, it raised serious questions about Trudeau’s stance on extremist elements.

The Canadian government has also faced criticism for its failure to control anti-India protests, some of which included flag burnings and provocative demonstrations outside Indian consulates.

Diplomatic Crisis in 2023

Tensions between Canada and India hit a new low in 2023 when Trudeau accused "Indian agents" of involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a known terrorist. India denied these claims and demanded evidence, which Canada has yet to provide.

As a result of these allegations, trade discussions between the two nations were suspended, and India temporarily stopped processing visas for Canadian citizens due to concerns over the safety of its diplomatic staff.

India's principle of reciprocity led to the recall of over 40 Canadian diplomats from their posts in India. In turn, Canada sought India's involvement in a probe into alleged interference in Canadian elections.

The Khalistan Controversy
Trudeau's current struggles with India echo challenges faced by his father, Pierre Trudeau, who also faced criticism for his approach to Khalistani extremism during the 1980s. Canadian authorities at that time were accused of being lenient towards Khalistani militants, and Pierre Trudeau refused to extradite Talwinder Singh Parmar, the mastermind behind the 1985 Air India bombing.

As Justin Trudeau navigates his current political and diplomatic challenges, it remains unclear how his tactics will influence both his domestic standing and the future of Canada-India relations.