The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the 4th quarter of Fiscal Year 23 will be released today, May 31. India's GDP growth is expected to increase from 4.4 percent in the prior quarter to 4.9 to 5.5 percent in the January-March quarter, according to analysts. In the three months leading up to December 2022, the Indian economy grew at a significantly slower rate than in September, i.e, 4.3% against 6.3%.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) expected FY23 GDP growth to be 7%, however, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated in its annual report that real GDP in Q4FY23 is estimated to rise at 5.1%.
In its Ecowrap, the State Bank of India predicted that the GDP will expand by 5.5% in the fourth quarter of FY23. "At this rate, India's GDP growth for FY23 is likely to be at 7.1%," it added.
Analysts’ views on forthcoming GDP Q4 numbers : Analysts believe, India's GDP growth for the current year is anticipated to be in the range of 7%. According to brokerage B&K Securities, the GDP growth for the current year will probably be about 7%. According to the brokerage, both the services industry and private spending may be the main drivers of this year's growth.
However, B&K Securities added a warning, stating that deceleration in private consumption will significantly affect India's GDP growth in FY24. It also stated that the weakening of the world economy is a matter for concern because it will result in slow exports, which will negatively affect manufacturing and growth.
According to financial services provider Emkay Global Financial Services, the momentum in commerce, lodging, and transportation as well as the increase in government spending would likely be the main drivers of growth in Q4. It also mentioned indications of a recovery in consumption.
Lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Madhavi Arora stated: "Services net exports increased, and the trade deficit decreased, making net exports less of a burden on growth. We estimate the Q4 GDP to be 5.1% and the FY23 GDP to be 7%. However, we anticipate a slowdown in growth to 5.7% in FY24.
Rating agency ICRA stated that it anticipates India's GDP growth for Q4FY23 to be at 4.9%, a slight increase from Q3FY23's GDP growth of 4.4%. The ratings agency added that the services sector will be the main driver of this quarter's GDP growth.
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