Amidst the growing threat of the Corona epidemic, two health experts claim that by mid-September the epidemic will be wreaking havoc on the country. Experts of the Ministry of Health have concluded this on the basis of a mathematical model. It has been said in the analysis that when the total number of patients who have been cured and lost lives will be equal to the number of active patients, that will be its peak. After this, a period of decline will begin in it. This will take more than three months to happen.

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This analysis published in the science journal Epidemiology International has been carried out by Dr. Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health) and Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) Rupali Roy in the Directorate General of Health Services under the Ministry of Health. Both experts used ballet mathematical models to predict the disease. The same can be concluded on the basis of this model in case of any infectious disease. In this model, conclusions are made on the basis of total infectives and all patients who have been cured. This model works on the basis that as long as a person is infected, he can infect new people. Once the number of people who have been cured and lost lives will be equal to the total number of infected people, then the sequence of infection will be over. The number of people who have been cured and lost lives in India is equal to about half of the total infected.

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It has been said in the analysis that the actual onset of the epidemic in India occurred on March 2 and since then new cases are increasing daily. Based on this model, it has been told that by mid-September, the number of people who have been cured and lost will be equal to the total number of infected people. This will be the point when the epidemic ends. Experts say that the role of population and environment is important in the spread of infection. The government will have to take decisions keeping this in mind.

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