BEIJING: Mahendra Pratap was expecting a good harvest when he began planting his rice paddy fields in Kannauj district in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh in June.
His crop was destroyed by torrential rains last year, but the government did not give him any help.
But during the recent monsoon season he ran into the exact opposite issue: too little rain. 90 per cent of his crop had dried up by August.
In a phone interview, Pratap said, "This year the land is barren and again we did not get help from the government." He said other farmers have also faced similar problems.
Extreme weather this year threatens global rice production in major rice-producing countries such as India, China and Pakistan, potentially affecting more than 2 billion people in Asia who depend on rice as a staple food, according to experts.
An abundant crop four years ago, rice remains largely affordable despite skyrocketing food prices this year.
However, several factors, such as the high prices of fertilizers as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's record heat and drought, India's low rainfall, and heavy monsoon floods in Pakistan, are conspiring to reduce yields and raise prices.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Asia-Pacific region produces and consumes more than 90% of the world's rice (FAO).
China is the largest producer and importer of rice worldwide. Guilherme Campos, manager of international business advisory with Dejan Shira & Associates in Hong Kong, claims it is mostly self-sufficient and holds over 100 million tonnes of rice reserves.
According to Campos, the drought will have an impact on China's rice yields, which could impact the country's ability to export. But even if imports are probably going to rise, he said, they are unlikely to be "unreasonably high".
Despite being a modest global exporter, China mainly exports rice to the Philippines, South Korea and Japan.
However, India is the largest grain exporter in the world, feeding people from at least 150 different countries. The production hazards have raised concerns that India will hinder exports, prompting the government to reassure the public that such a ban is unlikely. Following a record heatwave affecting local production in May, India imposed a ban on wheat exports.
According to Indian media a week ago, the government is reportedly considering banning the export of 100% broken rice, which imports most of China's rice from India and is used to feed livestock.
According to a report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on August 12, the world rice supply is projected to decline by 4.1 million tonnes to 697.3 million tonnes in 2022-23, mainly due to the reduction in production in Bangladesh and India.
According to Campos, 17.6 million mu (1.2 million ha) of land in several provinces along the Yangtze River basin - a "significant" rice-producing region - has been affected by China's drought.
The first of China's three rice crops was successfully harvested under normal conditions, but the second crop, known as "middle rice", is currently going through the peak and flowering stage, which is "dependent on temperature and water". most sensitive period". Him. Most of the record high temperatures will be felt in irrigated areas, he said.
According to Chinese customs, China's rice exports fell in the first seven months of 2022, down 18.42% year-on-year, even before the drought.
According to analysts, the biggest impact of the drought will be on China's exports to South Korea and the Philippines, but it will not have much effect on Japan.
According to FAO rice market analyst Shirley Mustafa, the japonica variety of rice, which is grown in northeastern China and has avoided drought this year, is favored by the Japanese. However, he said it was too early to tell how the drought would affect the "medium rice" crop.
According to analysts, since China is not a significant rice exporter, importers may look to other rice producing countries. However, China's neighbors take any threat to their crops seriously.
A lawmaker in the Philippines has warned that the Yangtze River basin could affect dry rice supplies and urged the government to sign contracts with Vietnam and Thailand, the world's second and third largest rice exporters, to buy rice. .
In order to increase profits and increase the income of local farmers, Thailand and Vietnam have nevertheless decided to work together to raise rice prices in the international market.
The Philippines imports a lot of rice from these countries and is already facing a steady rise in food prices and a fall in the peso.
According to the India Meteorological Department, India saw significant rainfall deficits between June and August in important rice-producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, which account for 40% of the world's rice trade.
Similar to the government's assurances, All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA) executive director Vinod Kaul said any restrictions are unlikely to hurt the overall rice exports. As of July 1, India had 47 million tonnes of rice, much higher than the required 13.5 million tonnes.
According to Kaul, the government will soon hold a meeting with the states to discuss the situation with food grains. According to India's Ministry of Agriculture, rice production is currently projected to reach 130 million tonnes in 2021-22, an increase of 6 million tonnes over the previous year.
The October crop for 2022-2023, which will be harvested despite the lack of rain, may not be as strong.
Rahul Chauhan, director, IGrain India, who provides commodity updates and insights, said paddy sown area has reduced in some states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. Less rainfall will also reduce India's total productivity.
According to him, in the year leading up to August, the total area under paddy sown in India decreased from about 39.1 million hectares to 36.7 million hectares.
Despite the lack of rain, Kaul claimed that the fall in production is unlikely to be as significant as India will produce a record amount of rice in 2021-22.
One of the Indian farmers who has almost seen his crop disappear is Raghunandan Singh, who has 2.5 hectares of land in Uttar Pradesh.
The 50-year-old said, "Our two main crops are rice and maize. This time, there has not been enough rain, we are left with nothing. How can we help?
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