United States: Signaling wider political rifts in the nation as the midterm elections approach, more than two in five Americans believe the American Civil War is likely to occur at least to some extent in the coming ten years.

According to a recent survey by YouGov and The Economist, 43% believe a civil war is either "very" or "somewhat probable".
The conflict was most likely among those who considered themselves "strong Republicans".

Of all respondents, one in three said it is very unlikely or not at all, and 22% are unsure.

Thomas Gift, director of the Center on US Politics at University College London, said in an interview that "political polarization is at its highest level in decades now, if not back to civil war."

However, he cautioned against over-interpretation of the data, pointing out that such conflict rarely occurs in developed, democratic countries and it is not clear what respondents think of when they think of a "civil war". What do you imagine?

Furthermore, a survey of 1,500 US adults found that 66% of Americans believe political divisions have worsened since early 2021. By comparison, only 8% of the respondents claimed that the country has become less polarized.

According to the majority of respondents, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to believe that political violence would increase in the coming years.

The FBI investigation into Mar-a-Lago has escalated political tensions.

Senator Lindsey Graham said on Sunday that there would be "riots in the streets" if former President Donald Trump is accused of handling secret documents found at his Florida home.

Despite the perception that it is more prevalent, according to GIFT, political violence accounts for only 1% of all violent crimes in America.

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