In Haryana, the BJP appears to be securing a surprising victory, defying predictions that favored the Congress party. With results still being tallied, the BJP has surpassed the majority mark, positioning itself for a third consecutive win in the state. This achievement comes despite challenges that suggested the party might be struggling due to long incumbency.

The anticipated win in Haryana challenges the narrative that the BJP is in decline following its underwhelming performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections. After failing to meet its goal of winning 400 seats and having to rely on coalition partners like the TDP and JD(U), many believed the BJP's dominance was coming to an end, especially with the rise of the opposition INDIA bloc.

What does the potential victory in Haryana signify? If confirmed, it could reshape the electoral landscape across India. The BJP's recent performance prompted the opposition to believe they had found a winning strategy centered on giveaways, caste dynamics, and increased quotas, which could effectively counter the BJP's focus on development and Hindutva.

The Haryana elections are crucial, as they serve as a battleground for the BJP's resilience. The party faced significant challenges, including backlash from the influential Jaat community due to farm protests and the wrestling community's discontent affecting its image. Additionally, the BJP's leadership changed before the elections, with Nayab Singh Saini stepping in for the unpopular Manohar Lal Khattar, making it even more difficult to compete against Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the Congress.

A BJP win in Haryana would send a strong message, countering beliefs that the party's influence was waning and that Modi's popularity was fading. If the Congress fails to secure victory, internal discord within the party could be cited as a reason, but it would not undermine the BJP's effective strategies.

The BJP's potential success would demonstrate that it has maintained its ability to build winning coalitions across various castes and has effectively countered the opposition's incentive-based tactics. It would also reinforce the notion that the BJP's electoral machinery and the appeal of Modi remain intact.

Impact on Maharashtra and Jharkhand

The most immediate effect of a BJP victory in Haryana would be felt in the forthcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. This win would uplift party morale, especially after disappointing Lok Sabha results, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP lost many seats to opposition parties. It would also challenge the narrative of the BJP's decline and pose a dilemma for the opposition bloc, which would need to reassess its strategies and alliances, especially if Congress and Rahul Gandhi suffer losses in Haryana.

Moreover, the BJP's success would validate its ability to navigate caste dynamics effectively, enhancing confidence among strategists and attracting smaller caste leaders who may have distanced themselves from the party after the Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP has focused on securing non-Jat votes under Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini and targeting Dalit voters traditionally aligned with Congress. This strategy seems effective and could encourage the party to adopt similar approaches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

In Haryana, the BJP committed to a minimum support price (MSP) for 24 crops and offered financial aid of ₹2,100 to all women, aiming to counter Congress's promises of free electricity and substantial medical coverage. This strategy of appealing to voters with financial incentives will likely be replicated in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

In Maharashtra, the BJP has already launched a direct benefit transfer scheme for women, which promises ₹1,500 monthly for eligible families. The party is likely to expand such initiatives in both states.

A BJP victory in Haryana would also leave the opposition demoralized in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Rahul Gandhi, who has been vocal against PM Modi and the BJP, may need to reconsider his strategy, and Congress's bargaining power within the INDIA bloc could diminish significantly if it loses in Haryana.