Violence in Manipur has escalated dramatically as militants returning from Myanmar’s civil war bring sophisticated weapons and combat experience into the region. Indian security forces have reported an influx of fighters from across the border, aggravating the already bitter ethnic conflict between the predominantly Hindu Meitei community and the largely Christian Kuki tribes.

Since May 2023, clashes have claimed over 260 lives and displaced more than 60,000 people, marking one of the most severe law-and-order crises during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure. To curb the violence, the federal government has deployed an additional 10,000 soldiers, increasing the total security presence in the state to nearly 67,000 troops, supported by a 30,000-strong police force.

Roots of the Conflict

Manipur, a hilly state bordering Myanmar with a population of 3.2 million, has a long history of insurgencies. The current conflict ignited after a court ruling proposed extending government benefits meant for disadvantaged groups to the dominant Meitei community, sparking tensions with the Kuki tribes residing in the hills.

Security forces have established buffer zones between the warring communities, but violence continues to spread, fueled by arms smuggling, extortion, and illegal drug trade. The porous India-Myanmar border has facilitated the movement of insurgents and weapons, complicating efforts to restore peace.

Myanmar’s Civil War and Its Impact

Indian security officials revealed that Meitei militants had aligned with Myanmar's ruling junta, fighting against anti-junta rebel groups like the People’s Defence Force-Kalay (PDF-K) and the Kuki National Army in Myanmar's Sagaing, Kachin, and Chin regions. These militants, now returning to Manipur, bring battle-hardened cadres and advanced weaponry, including rocket launchers, sniper rifles, and foreign-made assault rifles such as M16s and AK-47s.

Conversely, Kuki militants have strengthened ties with Myanmar's Kachin rebels and procured arms from the semi-autonomous Wa state. This cross-border dynamic has intensified the arms race, with rival factions using looted and illegally imported weapons.

Weapons Cache and Arrests

According to government data, approximately 5,000 weapons were stolen from state armories during the initial months of the conflict—about 3,000 of which have been recovered. However, an estimated 3,500 illegally imported arms remain in circulation among the militants.

Indian authorities arrested over 300 militants in 2023, including more than 200 Meitei insurgents and 50 Kuki fighters. Despite these efforts, the influx of advanced weaponry from Myanmar continues to challenge the region’s stability.

Criminal Funding Sources

To finance their operations, insurgents have resorted to extortion and revenue from illegal poppy cultivation. While the state government has attempted to curb these activities, the lucrative drug trade remains a critical funding source for rival factions.

In February 2024, India announced plans to fence its 1,600-kilometer border with Myanmar to stem the flow of militants and arms. However, officials acknowledge that sealing the border is a complex and long-term endeavor.

As the conflict spreads to new areas, restoring peace in Manipur will require not just military intervention but also diplomatic efforts to address the underlying ethnic and social tensions.