India Ratings has lowered its GDP growth prediction for 2021-22 to 8.6%, down from the consensus of 9.2% previously expected.

On Monday, the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), which predicts 9.2% real GDP growth for the year, will release the second advance estimate of national income.

NSO is expected to estimate FY22 real gross domestic product growth at Rs 147.2 lakh crore, according to an India Ratings research. This amounts to an 8.6% GDP growth rate, down from 9.2% predicted in the first advance estimate given on January 7, 2022.

The upward revision of FY21 GDP to Rs 135.6 lakh crore in the first revised estimate of national income for FY21, which was announced on January 31, 2022, is the main cause for the expected downward revision, according to the agency.  As a result, the provisional estimate of (-)7.3% released on May 31, 2021 has been revised down to (-)6.6% for FY21. Aside from that, the second revised estimate of national income for FY20 was 3.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 4%, and the third estimate kept FY19 growth at 6.5 percent.

Due to these revisions, the growth rates of GDP demand drivers such as private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, and gross fixed capital formation have changed, and quarterly GDP growth statistics are also projected to alter this year.

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