The Indian economy has been largely protected against the global recession over the years. Even in the global sluggishness of 2001 and 2008, the country's GDP growth rate was not negative. Things are different now. Economic analysts are presenting different models to overcome this situation. Arthur D Little's report on Global Strategy and Management Consultancy Surmounting the Economic Challenge of Covid-19 describes how India's economy will grow in the coming quarters.
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According to the concept of this format, the growth rate will go down in the first quarter of 2020-21 and will start moving upwards from the second quarter. The financial support of the government will have a strong impact. This will help start the manufacturing and construction sectors. According to the analysis, in this model the country's GDP will go up to one percent in 2020-21 and then will grow at 4.1 percent in 2021-22.
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The recovery of this model from the union of three abuses is being anticipated. The increase in Covid-19 cases in summer, its peak again in winter, peaking in December and further government financial support are expected to result in a recovery in W-shape due to all three factors. It may show growth in the third quarter of 2020-21. After this, after five consecutive quarterly fluctuations, the final recovery in 2021-22 will be possible when the vaccine becomes available.
