New Delhi: Good news has also emerged for India regarding the South-West Monsoon. This year, South Asia including India is expected to receive more than normal rainfall during the monsoon season i.e. June to September. 

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has said this in its forecast released for the monsoon season of 2024. SASCOF has said in the forecast that some areas of northern, eastern and north-eastern parts of South Asia may see below normal rainfall, meanwhile temperatures may remain above normal in most areas. This regional climate forecast has been prepared by all the nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of South Asia. In this, help of international experts of SASCOF has been taken.

Moderate El Nino conditions at present: Reports say that the Forum has said that moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. El Nino conditions are expected to remain neutral during the first two months of the 4-month monsoon season i.e. between June-July. After that, there is every possibility of favorable La Nina conditions during the two months i.e. August-September.

Forecast of more than average rainfall: Even before the SASCOF report comes, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted more than normal rainfall in India. Last month, IMD released its forecast for the southwest monsoon season that India would receive 106 percent of the long-term average (LPA) rainfall. IMD had also said that there is going to be more rainfall in the next two months (August-September) of the 4-month season, because then favorable conditions of La Nina are going to be created.

What is El Nino, La Nina:  DS Pai, senior scientist of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that in the event of El Nina, the surface water in the central Pacific Ocean becomes warmer and as a result, the southwest monsoon weakens in India. And a situation of drought is created. At the same time, in the case of La Nina, exactly the opposite happens and due to its effect, there is going to be more rainfall than normal in the monsoon season.

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