Beijing: An electricity trade association estimates that China's electricity consumption will increase by 6% this year and expects a quick economic recovery after the country is freed from Covid-19 restrictions.
According to a report released last week by the China Electricity Council, "China's economic operation is expected to fully recover in 2023, so that the growth rate of electricity consumption will exceed that of 2022."
“Under normal weather conditions, it is predicted that in 2023, global electricity consumption will reach 9.15 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of about 6% from 2022.”
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The development of new energy is projected to increase overall electricity generation capacity, while macroeconomics and climate are expected to have a significant impact on electricity demand.
In 2022, China's electricity consumption is set to rise 3.6% from a year earlier to 8.6 trillion kWh, while electricity supply is projected to rise 7.8% from 2021 to 2.56 billion kWh.
According to the council, there is uncertainty in both supply and demand. It states that rainfall, wind and solar resources, and fuel supplies are all unreliable in terms of power supply.
At the same time, the ongoing losses of the coal power industry have resulted in insufficient expenditure on technical maintenance and renewal, which has increased equipment risk and created hidden hazards, all of which have increased the uncertainty of electricity generation and supply.
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The report notes that uncertainty in electricity demand and consumption will be exacerbated by economic growth, international trade and exports, as well as extreme weather.
Full-year growth for China's economy in 2022 will be 3%, the second lowest since 1976 and only slightly higher than the 2.2% growth seen in 2020. China's economy grew by 2.9% in the fourth quarter last year.
Vice Premier Liu He, among other Chinese officials, expressed optimism for the country's economic recovery this year. Liu predicted that China's growth would resume its normal trend in 2023 at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week.
The supply-demand balance has been tight over the years, and power shortages are expected to persist in some areas during peak times.
In Sichuan province, where persistent high temperatures severely hampered hydropower capacity, a major source of the region's electricity, last August, heat waves in southwest China caused an ongoing power crisis.
Furthermore, a nationwide power outage in October 2021 caused chaos across the country and interfered with daily life as well as consumer and manufacturing activities.
The Council advised the industry to reduce costs, accelerate investments and increase generation capacity to build a power grid to guarantee power supply this year.
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The report recommended that the region "continue to optimize the electricity supply structure and diversify energy supply." "The complementary advantages of coal power and new energy power generation should be harnessed, while strengthening the planning of wind, solar and other new energy power generation."