New Delhi: Private weather forecaster Skymet expects a later start to the southwest monsoon this year across Kerala. The monsoon onset forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet been released.

Jatin Singh, founder-director of Skymet said in a tweet in its 15 days rainfall forecast. “Monsoon onset looks feeble and delayed. Hot weather will continue deep into June this year. “Thunderstorms in North India to start after 18 May" 
Skymet predicted below-average monsoon rainfall for 2023 last month, raising concerns for rural incomes, consumption, and economic growth.  It had stated that because to the impact of the El Nio weather pattern, connected to droughts or inadequate rainfall in India, rains during the June–September season will be 94% of the long-period average (LPA). 

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)'s potential of being positive and a reduction in the amount of snow covering the northern hemisphere, on the other hand, are projected to counteract developing El Nino conditions, according to the IMD, which had predicted that India will most likely have normal rains throughout the four-month monsoon season. 

Rainfall was predicted to be 96% of the long-term normal. IMD defines typical rainfall as falling within the range of 96% and 104% of the season's 88 centimetres (35 inches) 50-year average. Monsoon rainfall in 2017 was 106% above average, which increased food grain production in 2022–2033.

During the southwest monsoon season, Indian Ocean Dipole, which is currently in the neutral state, is anticipated to be positive. This year's below-average snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia in February and March has a history of interfering with the Indian monsoon, therefore IMD predicts that this will help the monsoon return to normal.

As per India Metrological Department, there is a 35% likelihood that the monsoon will be normal, a 29% chance that it will be below average, a 22% risk that it will be deficient, an 11% chance that it would be over normal, and just a 3% chance that it will be excess. 

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