When Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi said that “there will be an earthquake, when he will speak in parliament about the real reason behind demonetization; the nation was eagerly waiting for his revelation. But he spoke after a week, on Modi’s home turf in Mehsana (Gujrat) and alleged that Modi had received bribes when he was Gujarat chief minister from Sahara Conglomerate and Aditya Birla Group. It has not caused any earthquake and not even a tremor, but it is no doubt a big ‘daring attack’ by Rahul Gandhi on PM Modi. However, it is now has become a double-edged sword, that may even harm Congress more than BJP and Modi. The political war has now become very interesting; since by adopting the demonetization move, Modi had played a big gamble and after that making those charges in public, Rahul played another big gamble.  

It is notable that, these allegations were not at all shocking or surprising for media; because they were in public domain for quite some time as originally they were brought forth by a senior lawyer and Swaraj Abhiyan's national president Prashant Bhushan. Bhushan had filed a writ petition with the name of an NGO client named Common Cause and sought an SC-monitored probe into the documents allegedly recovered during Income Tax raids on Sahara and Aditya Birla groups between 2013 and 2014. The NGO alleged that there were serious evidences of bribes being paid to chief ministers, top politicians and bureaucrats, including a Gujarat chief minister, believed to be a reference to Modi. After this, AAP leader Arvind Kejariwal used these charges presenting them in Delhi assembly to hog the lime-light. But until the speech of Rahul Gandhi these charges could not get significant attention; as the Supreme Court had also not accepted them for hearing, in the lack of substantial evidence. However, SC has not yet dismissed the charges and in fact, it has asked the petitioner ‘Common Cause’ to come with some other concrete evidence on the next date of hearing, on January 11.

So, now January 11 is a very crucial date in this case, which has become politically very important. In fact, whatever evidences Prashant Bhushan, Arvind Kejariwal and Rahul has got in this case, all are only ‘one party evidences’. Because, the diaries and CD’s of computerizes entries are the documents of only one party in those transactions, i.e. only the ‘giver’ and there is no proof of acceptance of the money from the receiver’s side. So, these evidences are not admissible as substantial by any court. Hence, if the petitioner will fail to present some substantial supporting evidences, then this plea is likely to be rejected. If the rejection will occur, the balloon of Rahul’s charges will also get punctured and then Rahul will really become a target of ridicule.

If in case, the petitioner (or afterwards Kejariwal or Rahul) will be able to present some substantial evidences, to support the charges and the apex court accepts them for hearing or for any probe; in that case too it will not only harm the image of Narendra Modi but it will damage the image of many other big leaders and bureaucrats too; including some former Congress CM’s and top opposition party leaders; because their names are also there in those diaries and CD’s. It means that, in any case, Congress and Rahul will not be the net gainer.

Therefore, it implies that this big move or gamble of Rahul is not a well thought and matured decision and it is likely to backfire over his party, itself. However, if the gamble of demonetization played by PM Modi will also badly fail, then in that case, Congress may earn more sympathy and may present itself as the only alternative party that has a national presence.

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